Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Big cap FTSE 100 running away from Mid cap FTSE 250
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Big Cap FTSE 100 is outperforming Mid cap FTSE 250. Both look ripe for a set back but for FTSE 100 it is likely just a short-term correction but for FTSE 250 it could be a reversal of the uptrend
FTSE 100 uptrend is pausing at the top of the Cloud (shaded area) If the Index is failing to close above the Cloud a correction down to the 55 daily Moving Average could be seen. However, a dip down to the 100 Moving Average and the 0.382 retracement at 7,645 should not be ruled out.
A close below 7,634 will reverse the trend with downside potential to the 0.618 retracement at round 7,478.
Medium-term FTSE 100 is in an uptrend trading around the 0.786 retracement. Despite RSI currently being below 60 it is in a positive sentiment. But if RSI fails to close above 60 this time around a correction could unfold.
An RSI close back above 60 is likely to re-ignite the Index for a push to take out previous peak at 8,047
FTSE 250 Mid cap Index has bounced somewhat but is lagging the Big Cap FTSE 100. Currently being rejected at the 55 and 100 Moving Average’s and RSI rejected at 60 threshold i.e., still in bearish sentiment. If RSI fails to close above 60 FTSE 250 could slide back below its 200 daily Moving Average. A close below 18,528 and the down trend has resumed.
For FTSE 250 to gain further upside momentum a close above 19,500 is needed.
Medium-term FTSE 250 did form a bottom and reversal pattern a couple of weeks ago and weekly RSI is positive suggesting the Index could crawl higher. 55 weekly Moving Average is providing strong resistance and if the Index closes a week below 18K 2022 low around 16,520 is likely to be tested.
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