Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Hang Seng Ind / HK50, China A50 and JP225 bouncing from supports
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Hang Seng/HK50 cfd Three days in a row have sellers tried to push HSI below the very important support at 17,000. It is both a technical and psychological level. Failed on all three occasions HIS has bounced and could bounce further to the 0.618 retracement at around 17,752, possibly up to the 0.786 retracement just below 18K. The declining 55 Moving Average will provide resistance likely limiting the upside potential.
A close below 17K could fuel renewed sell-off down towards October 2022 lows around 15K medium-term.
It should be noted, however that the RSI is showing divergence indicating the downtrend since August/September is weakening and a larger correction could be seen. But if HSI is closing below 17K the RSI divergence is likely to be cancelled
For HSI to reverse the current bearish trend a close above 18,290 is needed The China A50 Index future is trading in a falling channel like pattern. Bouncing from 11,580 level the A50 future could keep bouncing to the upper falling trendline
However, A50 to resume downtrend should be expected with the RSI showing negative sentiment and no divergence on both short- and medium-term.
A50 is quite likely to resume downtrend after a correction and sell-off further to the October 2022 lows around 11,150.
For A50 to reverse the down trend a close above 12,520 is needed.
JP225 cfd (Nikkei) is finding support at the 200 Moving Average just above the support at around 30,390.
Trend is still down however, and a close below October lows at 30,266 is likely to fuel another se4ll-off down to around 29K.
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