Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - Nasdaq 100 testing July peak. SP 500 closing in
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Nasdaq 100 likely to test July peak just below 16K. The Future/USNAS100 is testing July peak pre-market
S&P 500 likely to test strong resistance at 4,540
Nasdaq 100 gapped higher above the resistance at around 15,561. The July peak at around 15,932 is likely to be tested today Wednesday
At the time of writing the Nasdaq future/USNAS100 cfd is testing the July peak pre-market.
A close above 15,561 will be paving the way higher towards 16,650 towards the year end.
Corrections should be expected however, especially if the Index is hitting 16K. A likely scenario could be Nasdaq 100 reaching 1.618 projection of the October sell-off at around 16,130 followed by a correction.
However, RSI is showing positive sentiment and no divergence supporting the bullish picture
A close below 15,170 will demolish the current bullish picture
USNAS100 cfd:
S&P 500 yesterday jumped from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at 4,415 up to the 0.786 retracement at around 4,500.
There is still room up to the resistance at around 4,540 where a setback/correction should be expected. A close above could see the Index moving to 4,578 (1.618 projection of the October exhaustive down move) - 4,600.
However, the positive RSI with no divergence is supporting the view of higher Index levels. July peak at around 4,607 could be tested before we hit December
For S&P 500 to demolish this bullish picture a close of the Gap area i.e., a close below 4,415 is needed
US500 cfd:
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