Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - Tesla breaking key support. More troubles ahead for the beaten down share price
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Tesla shares have been sold off heavily closing yesterday below key support at 110. No one wants Tesla on their books at year end possibly leading bottoms fishers trying to pick up the beaten down share. However, indicators point to lower levels and Tesla could drop to even further in 2023.
Tesla closed yesterday below support at around $110. A level mentioned in previous Technical Updates that Tesla was likely to reach.
The 110 support level is the lowest level of the consolidation area back from Q3-Q4 2020. Next support is at around $91 but that might not hold either.
Tesla is a stock few Fund Managers want to have on their books at the end of 2022. Bargain hunters might try to pick up the beaten down stock which could lift Tesla share price somewhat in the first few days of the new year.
But a correction might be short-lived and there is likely to be more down side for Tesla investors in 2023.
Down trend and no RSI divergence on daily, weekly and monthly time periods. RSI is currently below 40 i.e., in negative sentiment on all time periods indicating lower levels are likely both short- and medium term. Tesla dropping to 64 and possibly even lower in 2023 seems more and more likely.
In a Technical Update from November I explain why https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/ta-tesla-bubble-imploding-22112022
Tesla is a bubble that is imploding and when that occurs the price can drop all the way down to the base. The base is the price area where a stock was trading before it took off. The base price area for Tesla is between 20 and 30. If Tesla drops below 64 next year that scenario could unfold.
Bottom fishing can be costly and one needs to keep it stops tight. However, there will be corrections when new money comes in to the market and sudden upward corrections of 5-10% could be seen. But as mentioned trend is down and selling is likely to resume pushing Tesla to above mentioned levels.
RSI divergence explained: When price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend
Author is holding a short position in Tesla
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3
Sandcastle economics
-
-
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.
-
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.
-
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.
-
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.