Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - EURUSD, Dollar Index & USDJPY testing key resistances and supports
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
EURUSD rejected at key resistance at 1.0370. Will it have another go or correction time.
Dollar Index finding support at 106. Key strong support is at 104.50-105.00
USDJPY broke key support but buyers lifting the pair back. Can the hold it above?
After breaking above the upper trendline in the short-term rising channel, EURUSD has been rejected the strong resistance at 1.0370. Uptrend is still intact and RSI showing no divergence indicating higher levels. But a close above 1.0370 is needed. A correction down to test the upper trendline from the above and possibly also the support at 1.02.
If EURUSD slides back below 1.02 key support is at 1.01. A close below could reverse or put on hold the current short-term uptrend.
If EURUSD closes above 1.0370 it can be a bit of a struggle to move much higher than 1.0580. The daily SMA will provide some resistance and on the weekly the 0.382 retracement of the entire down trend since Q3 2021 is at around 1.0580
1.0778 seems to be Bull/Bear pivot on medium-term for EURUSD
The Dollar Index seems to have found support just above 106. RSI below 40 for the first time in a very long time i.e., negative sentiment, indicating lower levels. The 0.382 retracement of the entire uptrend since Q1 2021 at 104.97 is not unlikely to be tested (see weekly chart). Possibly also the key support around 104.52.
RSI on weekly still positive despite showing divergence. If the Dollar Index closes back above 107.70 Bulls could get renewed energy for higher levels.
USDJPY closed Friday below key support at 140.25. After USDJPY touched the 0.618 retracement of the August – October uptrend Buyers are lifting the pair back 140.25 today.
Key question is whether buyers can keep the pair above 140.25 till the close. If so there is potential for further rebound to the 0.618 retracement of the peak to sell off trough at 144.85.
If RSI breaks back above its falling trend line it could be a strong indication of this rebound and possible turn around scenario to play out.
If Sellers take back control pushing USDJPY below todays low at 138.37 there is down side risk till 131.50 with support at around 135.86
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