Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
GBPUSD has bounced strongly following the heavy selling in September breaking above its upper falling medium-term trendline to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at around 1.1814. Resistance at 1.19 could be tested, however.
If closing above 1.19 there could be more upside to around 1.2250-1.23.
For GBPUSD to reverse this uptrend a close below 1.1144 is needed. A close below 1.1340 would indicate that scenario to unfold.
EURGBP bounced off support at 0.8565 and seems to be warming up for uptrend to resume. A close above 0.8866 will confirm that. First indication of this scenario to unfold would be if EURGBP breaks above 0.8830.
If that scenario unfold EURGBP is set to move to around 0.90.
Medium-term EURGBP is in an uptrend supporting the view of correction that has taken place over the past couple of months is over. Weekly RSI showing positive sentiment and no divergence indicating higher level on EURGBP
A close below 0.8560 is needed to reverse that.