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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
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Technical Update - Correction in USDJPY, AUDJPY and GBPJPY unfolding. EURJPY still holding on. Find key levels here
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
USDJPY Despite no RSI divergence a correction seems to be unfolding in USDJPY. A sell-off short-term down to the 0.618 retracement at 154.09 is in the cards.
The 55 daily Moving Average will provide some support around that level.
However, a dip down to 16th May low at 153.60 should not be ruled out!. However, there is downside risk to the 0.786 retracement at 153.11
RSI is still showing positive sentiment supporting higher USDJPY levels, but if USDJPY is closing below 153.60 combined with an RSI close below 40 threshold the trend has turned bearish.
For USDJPY to reverse this corrective behaviour a close above 157.71 is required. If that scenario plays out USDJPY is likely to push higher towards 160
EURJPY dipped below minor support at 169.06 but has since bounced, the uptrend is intact albeit stretched and in exhaustion mode. A bearish correction could still occur.
An other break below 169.06 is likely to push EURJPY lower to the 0.618 retracement at 166.64 and the lower rising trendline.
The 55 daily Moving Average will add to the support strength.
If taking out 170.90 EURJPY uptrend is likely being extended above previous peak at around 171.68.
The RSI divergence is indicating uptrend exhaustion i.e., a bearish correction is most likely. However, if EURJPY is taking out 170.90 and RSI is closing above its upper falling (blue) trendline the bullish trend is to be extended
AUDJPY correction it unfolding after the pair has been rejected just a few pips below the 105 level
Minor support at around 102.80. A break below is likely increasing the selling pressure down to the 0.6518 retracement at 101.83 but a dip down to the 0.786 retracement at 101 should not be ruled out
A break above 104.87 and the uptrend is resuming likely pushing well above previous peak at 105
GBPJPY has been rejected at the previous peak at around 200.75 and a correction is unfolding.
GBPJPY is likely to test the 0.382 retracement at 197.21 shortly but a sell-off down to the 0.618 retracement is in the cards.
The 55 daily Moving Average will add to the support around that level
RSI has been showing divergence for a few weeks indicating that the uptrend has been exhaustion mode.
A daily close above 200.75 will extend the uptrend cancelling/reversing the correction scenario
How to read and understand the Technical Indicators used in this article Technical analysis studies and indicators
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