Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
USDJPY Despite no RSI divergence a correction seems to be unfolding in USDJPY. A sell-off short-term down to the 0.618 retracement at 154.09 is in the cards.
The 55 daily Moving Average will provide some support around that level.
However, a dip down to 16th May low at 153.60 should not be ruled out!. However, there is downside risk to the 0.786 retracement at 153.11
RSI is still showing positive sentiment supporting higher USDJPY levels, but if USDJPY is closing below 153.60 combined with an RSI close below 40 threshold the trend has turned bearish.
For USDJPY to reverse this corrective behaviour a close above 157.71 is required. If that scenario plays out USDJPY is likely to push higher towards 160
EURJPY dipped below minor support at 169.06 but has since bounced, the uptrend is intact albeit stretched and in exhaustion mode. A bearish correction could still occur.
An other break below 169.06 is likely to push EURJPY lower to the 0.618 retracement at 166.64 and the lower rising trendline.
The 55 daily Moving Average will add to the support strength.
If taking out 170.90 EURJPY uptrend is likely being extended above previous peak at around 171.68.
The RSI divergence is indicating uptrend exhaustion i.e., a bearish correction is most likely. However, if EURJPY is taking out 170.90 and RSI is closing above its upper falling (blue) trendline the bullish trend is to be extended
AUDJPY correction it unfolding after the pair has been rejected just a few pips below the 105 level
Minor support at around 102.80. A break below is likely increasing the selling pressure down to the 0.6518 retracement at 101.83 but a dip down to the 0.786 retracement at 101 should not be ruled out
A break above 104.87 and the uptrend is resuming likely pushing well above previous peak at 105
GBPJPY has been rejected at the previous peak at around 200.75 and a correction is unfolding.
GBPJPY is likely to test the 0.382 retracement at 197.21 shortly but a sell-off down to the 0.618 retracement is in the cards.
The 55 daily Moving Average will add to the support around that level
RSI has been showing divergence for a few weeks indicating that the uptrend has been exhaustion mode.
A daily close above 200.75 will extend the uptrend cancelling/reversing the correction scenario
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Uncover the shifting focus in 2024's FX markets towards growth resilience and relativity, away from bond yields and inflation stories.
Embrace the metal revolution on the commodity market in the coming year, with a focus on gold, silver, platinum, copper, and aluminum.
The gloominess of geopolitical conflicts and the repetitive nature of political agendas. What else does 2024 hold in store for us?
The disheartening cycle of unresolved geopolitical conflicts, the rise of polarizing political parties, and the stagnation of productivity.
Understand China's political landscape in Q4 2023 and the impact on counter-cyclical initiatives, with a focus on the pivotal Q1 2024.