Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
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Technical Update - EURCHF facing sell-off. USDCHF could rebound. Find key levels here
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
EURCHF got rejected at the 55 and 200 daily moving averages. The 55 is now crossing over the 200, signaling a Death Cross, which indicates lower EURCHF levels in the coming days and weeks.
The strength indicator RSI is showing negative sentiment, and if it closes back below the 40 threshold, the selling pressure is likely to intensify.
EURCHF is likely to test the 0.382 retracement at 0.9445 shortly, but since there is no divergence on RSI, it is an indication that EURCHF could drop to the 0.786 retracement and support around 0.9290–0.93
To reverse this bearish picture, a daily close above 0.96 is required
The strength indicator RSI is showing negative sentiment, and if it closes back below the 40 threshold, the selling pressure is likely to intensify.
EURCHF is likely to test the 0.382 retracement at 0.9445 shortly, but since there is no divergence on RSI, it is an indication that EURCHF could drop to the 0.786 retracement and support around 0.9290–0.93
To reverse this bearish picture, a daily close above 0.96 is required
USDCHF is trading around the 0.786 retracement at 0.85. If it does not close below this level, a rebound could be seen.
If it closes below, there could be further downside for USDCHF below the August trough at 0.8432.
The first indication of this continued bearish scenario playing out would be a break below today’s low at 0.8488.
RSI is showing negative sentiment with no divergence, suggesting lower USDCHF levels.
There is no strong support until around 0.84.
If bouncing from the 0.85 support, a bounce up to around 0.8588 (i.e., the 0.382 retracement - the red Fibonacci retracement levels) is likely. Watch out for a potential bottom and reversal pattern—it could occur if USDCHF forms a neutral candle today and a bullish candle on Friday
If it closes below, there could be further downside for USDCHF below the August trough at 0.8432.
The first indication of this continued bearish scenario playing out would be a break below today’s low at 0.8488.
RSI is showing negative sentiment with no divergence, suggesting lower USDCHF levels.
There is no strong support until around 0.84.
If bouncing from the 0.85 support, a bounce up to around 0.8588 (i.e., the 0.382 retracement - the red Fibonacci retracement levels) is likely. Watch out for a potential bottom and reversal pattern—it could occur if USDCHF forms a neutral candle today and a bullish candle on Friday
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