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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - EURSEK weakening uptrend. EURNOK set to resume uptrend. NOKSEK downtrend resumed
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: EURSEK uptrend weakening but selling trigger missing
EURNOK could be breaking higher to test previous peak
NOKSEK in bearish trend. Back to May levels ?
EURSEK is testing the lower trendline in the rising channel the cross has been trading in the past 12 months. In fact EURSEK did close below last week but is trying to get back above the trendline this week.
The RSI divergence does however, indicate ERUSEK could break lower. (RSI values have been declining while EURSEK has been rising – assign of trend is weakening)
Key support at around 11.40. A close below is likely to lead to a sell-off down to the 0.382 retracement of the entire uptrend since Q4 2021 at around 11.20
Short-term – daily chart - ERUSEK has bounced off the 200 daily Moving Average. If EURSEK is closing below 11.40 on the daily time period a downtrend has been confirmed
Daily RSI is below 40 threshold i.e., in negative sentiment indicating EURSEK to at least test the key 11.40 support.
EURSEK has a strong resistance at around 11.95.
EURNOK is at the time of writing close to be testing resistance at around 11.60. A daily close above is likely to fuel a bullish move to 12.00 and May 2023 peak. Resistance at around 11.85
To demolish the potential bullish scenario a close below 11.19. A close below 11.10 will confirm bearish trend with potential down toa round 10.70
NOKSEK is close to reach its Double top potential around 0.9890 as illustrated by the two vertical arrows. Currently bouncing from the 0.786 projection measured from the top to bottom of the double top pattern, and 0.50 correction of the May to August uptrend at 0.9956.
However, daily RSI is in negative sentiment with no divergence indicating lower NOKSEK levels could be seen. However, quite often an instrument is not “travelling” the full potential length but is usually cut short meaning this could be the xhaustion of the short-term sell-off
However, if NOKSEK is closing below 0.9890 further selling could be seen down May trough around 0.9450.. Support at 0.98.
Medium-term NOKSEK has been rejected at the upper falling trendline and seems to be resuming downtrend. If weekly RSI is closing back below 40 threshold the bearish scenario has resume. With potential down to May lows
To resume uptrend a close above 1.03 is needed.
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