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Technical Update - EURSEK testing key support. EURNOK uptrend running out of steam? NOKSEK pausing downtrend
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: EURSEK sell-off testing key support at 11.40. Bounce back or confirmation of downtrend?
EURNOK uptrend running out of steam testing key support. Will uptrend resume or a downtrtend be initiated?
NOKSEK in downtrend testing key support in medium-term downtrend
EURSEK is testing key strong support around 11.40 and the 55 Weekly Moving Average.
Weekly RSI is still above 40 i.e., showing positive sentiment despite the fact EURSEK has formed lower lows and lower highs meaning the pair is in a downtrend.
However, to confirm and fuel another sell-off lower RSI needs to close below 40 and EURSEK to close the week below 11.40
If that scenario plays out EURSEK could be hit with a sell-off down to 11.18 but potentially down to around 11.00
If sellers are failing to push EURSEK to close below 11.40 the pair could bounce back and resume uptrend
Daily RSI is currently exhibiting Divergence indicating the past couple of weeks sell-off is exhausting and EURSEK could bounce back possibly resuming uptrend.
For EURSEK to confirm an uptrend and to confirm the medium-term uptrend has resumed, a close above 11.85 is needed
If EURSEK is bouncing off 11.40 and the4 weekly RSI is closing above its falling trendline it could be an indication of uptrend to resume, despite there has been Divergence since mid-2022
EURNOK uptrend seems to be running out of steam shy of May peak at 12.07 currently testing short-term support at around 11.63 and the 55 DMA. A daily close below could initiate a sell-off down to 11.25-11.10 key strong support.
Both daily and weekly RSI is still in positive sentiment but a close below 11.63 is likely to push daily RSI below 40 threshold i.e., in negative sentiment.
If EURNOK is closing back above 12.00 uptrend will resume with potential to around 12.50
NOKSEK has reached the 0.786 retracement at around 0.9670 of the May-August 2022 bull trend. If the pair is closing back above 0.9830 a bounce up to the 0.382 retracement at 0.9448 would be likely
A close below 0.9640 is likely to extend the down trend to May 2022 lows around 0.95-0.9450uptrend running out of steam. NOKSEK
Medium-term NOKSEK seems to be trading in a wide falling channel i.e., NOKSEK is in bearish trend and currently stands at a key level.
Strong support at around 0.95 Latest Market Insights
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