Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Senior Relationship Manager
Good morning,
Yesterday was a bit of a slow day for equities with US Indexes at least closing lower, but the decline was limited. The big three lost less than 0.5%, volumes were more than 20% below the recent norm.
Right now, the US500 is 5226, the US 30 39336 and the US tech 100 NAS 18310. The GER40 18226 and the Japan 225 40400.
Tech took the Chinese ban on US Chips well and only lost slightly, Nvidia and Micron could rise. Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun announced he would resign at the end of the year; Der Spiegel wrote he was the best CEO Airbus ever had.
Kim wrote on European Indexes: EuroStoxx50/EU50 and DAX/GER40 uptrends very stretched. When will a correction hit?
Bitcoin was the mover of the day, rising above 70k again.
Oil rose yesterday on continuing attacks on refineries in Russian and is trading at 81.90 in the US line, Gold rose to 2172 and Silver holds at 21.60.
The USD Index is off the highs at 104.15 with EURUSD 1.0850, GBPUSD 1.2650 and USDJPY is holding above 151 despite comments out of Japan.
This week's volatility report outlines key trade setups for S&P 500 Index Weekly's (SPXW), Visa (V), Coinbase Global (COIN) and Block (SQ), targeting respective market movements. Amidst varying market conditions, we offer strategies ranging from bullish to bearish.
Today we are watching semi-important economic data, but also the middle east where the UN Security Council demanded an immediate ceasefire, this was possible by the US abstaining. Several countries in Europe are on high terror alert due to the attacks in Moscow
With the quarter end looming, be ready for sharp moves – especially once liquidity dries up when we head into the Easter Holiday.
Tuesday
- Data Japan PPI, De Consumer Confidence. US Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, Bostic speaks
- Earnings: BYD
Wednesday
- Data AU CPI EU Consumer Confidence, Waller Speaks,
Thursday
- Data Swiss KOF, DE Unemployment, US GDP& Initial Jobless Claims, University of Michigan sentiment
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, France CPI, Swiss FX reserves, US PCE, Powell and Daly speak
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
TTFMJ4 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 10:00 GMT
GCJ4 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
MGCJ4 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
HOJ4 will expire 28 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
RBJ4 will expire 28 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs
GOLDAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
HEATINGOILAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
GASOLINEUSAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
OILUKMAY24 will expire 28 Mar 2024 at 16:00 GMT