Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Morning Brew August 13 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
Equity Markets shrug off a higher PPI and seem to focus on growth. Producer Prices have not risen as fast n a decade. There were small gains in indexes on low volumes. Dax broke out of the range and neared 16000 before retreating to 15934 in the future.
The USD Initially gained after the PPI release then returned to yesterday’s levels. The USD Index is at 93, EURUSD 1.1738, GBPUSD 1.3811. Gold and Silver tested a break lower before rising again to 1755 and 23.25 again. Bitcoin trades at 45300
US 10 Year yields traded to 1.3750 before reverting to 1.3500.
In the coming week we are expecting the Japanese GDP, Chinas Industrial Output, EU GDP and US Retail Sales as the initial highlights. The narrative remains that as long as central banks inject liquidity, equities will have a hard time falling. Today the only events of note are US Import prices and the University of Michigan Sentiment at 14:30 and 16:00 CET respectively.
Based on a poll of economists , Reuters published that 65% of analysts expect the Fed to announce tapering at their September meeting. Most expect tapering to actually begin in Q1 22 and the asset purchase program to run out in 23.
In other news:
The Taliban capture Kandahar
Booster shots against Covid are approved in the US
Poly Network stated that most of the stolen USD 610 million in crypto currencies have been returned.
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
13 Aug 2021 | 08:45 | France | CPI (EU Norm) Final MM | Jul | 0.1% |
13 Aug 2021 | 08:45 | France | CPI (EU Norm) Final YY | Jul | 1.6% |
13 Aug 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | Current Account Balance | Jun | |
13 Aug 2021 | 09:30 | Sweden | CPI MM | Jul | 0.3% |
13 Aug 2021 | 09:30 | Sweden | CPI YY | Jul | 1.4% |
13 Aug 2021 | 16:00 | United States | U Mich Sentiment Prelim | Aug | 81.2 |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP QQ | Q2 | 0.2% |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP QQ Annualised | Q2 | 0.7% |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP QQ Pvt Consmp Prelim | Q2 | -0.1% |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP QQ Capital Expend. | Q2 | 1.7% |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP QQ External Demand | Q2 | -0.1% |
16 Aug 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | Urban Investment (YTD)YY | Jul | |
16 Aug 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | Industrial Output YY | Jul | |
16 Aug 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | Retail Sales YY | Jul | |
16 Aug 2021 | 12:00 | Euro Zone | Reserve Assets Total | Jul |
(refinitv)
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