Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Morning Brew April 14 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: USD Reaching Oversold Area - Lots of Releases Today
Good Morning,
Equities rose and the USD continued it`s slide yesterday on lower than feared inflation. The Dow rose by 1.14%, the S&P 1.33% and the Nasdaq 1.99%, the GER40 is testing the 15800. The USD Index is testing the support at 100.80. A breach would open the route to 100 and possibly 98. The USD decline has been extremely fast though and with the RSI at 27 we are in oversold territory.
EURUSD rose to 1.1070, GBPUSD 1.2540, while USDJPY fell to 132.50 and USDCHF to 0.8875. Gold and Silver rose to 2042 and 25.90. Bitcoin is trading near 31k and ETH at 2120.
We had Ole Hansen here in Zurich yesterday and he outlined a bullish case for commodities at a great event with Tastenwerk.
Today we are expecting a lot of data points that hits a fairly nervous and still a little illiquid market so it may be a very interesting day. The Swedish, French and Spanish CPI at 8:00, 8:45 and 9:00, at 14:30 the US Retail Sales followed by Capacity Utilization at 15:15 and the University of Michigan Sentiment at 16:00.
Three big banks(Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo) and Blackrock report earnings today that will be closely watched after the banking crisis. Disappointing results would signal tighter credit conditions.
Our Mads Eberhard wrote on ETH: Roughly one and a half years after Ethereum holders started staking Ether, they may now unstake to make their Ether accessible following the Shanghai hard fork. The day has been feared by the market, as it would allow 19.2mn Ether to be unlocked in the foreseeable future. However, at first sight, it appears that fewer than expected want to unstake, leading Ethereum to a nearly 5% gain in 24 hours, so Ethereum trades above $2,000 for the first time since August 2022.
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