Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Morning Brew April 25 2022
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
Risk off sentiment is driving markets after a terrible end of the week in which all 3 US indexes fell more than 2%. This morning it looks like the selloff is set to continue withteh GER40 below 14000. The S&P500 at 4230 the Dow at 33500 and the Nasdaq 100 at 13260, all based on the futures. The Euro could initially gain on the news that Emmanuel Macron beat Le Pen with a wide margin but gave up the gains over night.
EURUSD is trading at 1.0770, GBPUSD at 1.2800, the Japanese Yen remains high at 128.50, and the USD Index to 101.35, Gold and Silver fall to 1915 and 23.70 respectively and Bitcoin below 40k at trade at 39000. Oil is down 3%. EU bonds are little changed with the Bund Future trading at 153.50
Driver is a combination of rate hike fears in the US and now even the EU, where the market has now priced in around 85 basis points of hikes for this year, continued lockdowns in China, and overall growth fears.
The EU planning the 6th round of sanctions against Russia and the US are planning more weapons deliveries.
The takeover of Twitter by Elon Musk remains in the headlines, Hyunday reported a first quarter profit increase of almost 20%. Credit Suisse is rumored to pan a next restructuring as it threatens to fall out of the SMI Index.
The week will be driven by earnings data, with key companies reporting. Today Coca Cola is the largest, tomorrow Microsoft, Alphabet, GE, VISA and 3M will come out.
Technicals by Kim Cramer: : Nasdaq and S&P 500 have resumed their bear trend. Like to test March lows in a few days . RSI below 40
S&P 500 strong key support 4,164 likely to be tested coming week. 3,815 likely level to be seen before summer. Possibly 3,500 !
Dow Jones closed well below 34,102 key support. March lows around 32,578 likely to be tested within next 5-8 trading days.
Semiconductors already taken out March lows
Nikkei . Look out for key support test at 26,239.
ASX 200 rejected a few points below all time high. Likely to test support 7,356
DAX Key support 13,989 ! likely to close below Monday . If so March lows are targets.
Today the only significant economic data is the German IFO at 10:00 CET.
Remain cautions today and trade safely.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...