Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Heading into the FOMC and the 1st of May holiday in many areas
Good morning,
Due to the 1st of May holiday, there will be no Morning Brew tomorrow, please navigate Key earnings by heavyweights like Amazon and AMD, Month Ultimo, Earnings, the FOMC rate decision & Jerome Powell`s press conference, the financing announcement and uncertainty in the middle east as well as geopolitical matters safely and profitably.
Yesterday, Traders took Elon Musk`s trip to China well, Tesla stock soared 15% and Apple also gained 2.5% after a buy rating and renewed AI efforts were mentioned, Indexes closed in the green with the Dow +0.4%, the S&P +0.3% and the Nasdaq gained 0.35%.
The GER40 is currently at 18115 and the Neth25 is 882. European stock yesterday was Phillips. After agreeing to a settlement of 1.1bio USD the sock rose more than a quarter.
Ahead of the rate decision tomorrow, the 10-year yields are at 4.60 and the USD Index at 105.83. USDJPY stabilized at 156,80 for now after the intervention yesterday. EURUSD is at 1.0705 and GBPUSD, so some significant shifts within he Dollar Index but no major moves itself.
Gold and Silver are under pressure as the US is putting pressure on Hamas to accept an Israeli proposal for a truce, month end position adjustments and expiries are likely also in play, Gold is 2325 and Silver 26.85.
Overnight, Chinese PMI could hold barely above the important 50 but barely, today we are expecting a flurry of data points that can move markets if there is a surprise, tomorrow will be key with the FOMC. The key question remaining will be how hawkish Powell will sound in his speech and press conference – the most important time tomorrow is likely 20:30 CET when he steps to the podium, not 20:00 when the announcement happens. There will be important earnings announcement both days, today and tomorrow.
Trade safely!
Here some key readings by our Strats team:
Earnings week
Bonds in the week ahead
COT: Gold bulls stand firm despite recent correction
FX Technicals
Tuesday
- Data China PMI, France CPI, CH KOF, DE Unemployment & GDP, EU HICP& GDP, US Consumer confidence
- Earnings: Amazon, Stryker, AMD, Eli Lilly, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, HSBC
Wednesday
- Data Japan PMI, US PMI & Rate Decision
- Earnings: QUALCOMM, Mastercard, Pfizer,
Thursday
- Data US Initial Jobless Claims
- Earnings: Novo Nordisk, Linde, Apple, Amgen, Shell, ConocoPhillips,
Friday
- Data EU unemployment, US Nonfarm Payroll, PMI,
Saturday: Berkshire Hathaway
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
SBK4 will expire on 30 Apr 2024 at 15:00
RBK4 will expire on 30 Apr 2024 at 15:00
EBMK4 will expire on 3 May 2024 at 14:00
Expiring CFDs
OILUKJUN24 will expire on 30 Apr 2024 at 15:00
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.