Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Morning BrewFebrualy 13 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning
We have seen quite interesting moves in the last week – as usual when I am on Holiday.
The US 500 turned into the US 5000, the US Tech 100 NAS is near 18000 and Nvidia is reaching for the stars at above 700 – Nvidia is now worth more than Amazon and trading at a PE of 95 – earnings are due on Feb 21. . Bitcoin broke the 50k.
The USD Index is at 104.20 with EURUSD 1.0770, GBPUSD 1.2615 and USDJPY above the 148.80 resistance at 149.50. 48k and Gold and Silver are 2021 and 22.75.
After the last FOMC Rate decision and the stellar Non-Farm Payroll, the interest expectation for the US as well as for Europe have shifted significantly and the current expectation is that both will cut slightly more than 4 cuts by December. A march cut has become unlikely for both central banks, but both are seen to have cut at least once by June.
Charu writes in her FX Update that US disinflation will be the key focus as CPI and PPI is released, but dollar dips could continue to find buyers amid US exceptionalism and carry advantages.
The key event of the day should be the US CPI at 14.30 CET with an expectation of 2.9 annually and 0.2 monthly. The Core is expected at 3.7% and 0.3%.
While the CPI will indicate the Feds path, the other key questions are if the current equity rally is sustainable or if we well see an decline soon. Geopolitics remains a significant risk and the US election is becoming a hot topic already.
For Switzerland the CPI will be released at 8:00 expected at 1.7% annually.
Our Strats put out several very good research pieces yesterday:
Two tech updates by Kim on the yen crosses and Asian Indexes:
Technical analysis Hang Seng China A50 Nikkei JP225 | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Technical Update - Hang Seng Index, China A50 future and Nikkei JP225
Koen wrote on how one can approach USDJPY via options:
What are your (FX) options - Trading the USDJPY after the 148.8 breakout
Peter on Earnings:
Airbnb battles headwinds as fee hike may boost profits, can Airbus soar past Boeing?
Charu in FX:
Weekly FX Chartbook: US and UK disinflation story in focus, watch for ECB split widening
Tuesday
- Data CH CPI, UB Labor Data DE ZEW, US CPI
- Earnings: Airbnb Inc, American International Group, Coca Cola, Shopify, Moody!s
Wednesday
- Data UK CPI, EU GDP,
- Earnings: Sony, Heineken, CME, Cisco, Occidental Petroleum,
Thursday
- Data JP GDP, UK GDP US Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Bostic speaks,
- Earnings: Schneider, Stellantis, Applied Materials, Airbus, Deere, Safran,
Friday
- Data US PPI
- Earnings: Eni
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3
Sandcastle economics
-
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.
-
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.
-
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.
-
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.