Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
Markets were seemed fairly quiet yesterday while in fact, volumes were decent and the gains in US Equities as well, The Dow ended up 0.3%, the S&P 500 added 0.7% and the Nasdaq 1.2%. Volumes were slightly above average at 11.2 Bio shares traded.
Hopes that additional trade barriers may be avoided and the rebalancing apparently caused tech to outperform. Also, Janet Yellen stated
Rates changed little but the USD gave up ground, EURUSD rose to 1.1250, GBPUSD 1.3090 and USDJPY 138.40. Gold and Silver remain neat yesterdays level at 1959 and 24.85. If £Gold breaks above the 1963, we should see the next move up and Silver has room to 25,85 as long as we stay above 24.50.
Wheat saw some volatility yesterday as Russia let the Black Sea Wheat Deal expire but it calmed by now, we will need to assess if there is a real impact it seems.
Koen put together some Option strategies for ASML tomorrow:
What are your options - strategies for ASML Holding earnings :in the world of investing, earnings season always brings a flurry of activity and potential opportunities. This coming Wednesday, before the bell, we'll be hearing from ASML Holding N.V., a key player in the semiconductor industry.
What are we waiting for?
Key event today will be the US Retail Sales expected at 0.5% at 14:30 CET and the US Industrial Production, expected unchanged. The Canadian CPUI are key for everyone watching the Loonie. John Hardy wrote on the Yen while Equities seem to have some upside room but seem a little stretched.
Thade safely!
Tuesday July 18
US Retail Sales & Industrial Production, Canada CPI
Earnings: Bank of America, Novartis, Morgan Stanley, Prologis, Lockheed Martin, Charles Schwab, PNC Financial, Bank of NY Mellon
Wednesday July 19
EU HICP, US Housing Starts,
Earnings: Tesla, ASML, Netflix, IBM, Elevance Health, Goldman Sachs
Thursday July 20
China Loan Prime Rate, US Initial Jobless claims, US Consumer Confidence
Earnings: TSMC, Johnson & Johnson, SAP, Blackstone, CSX, ABB, Freeport-McMoran
Friday July 21
Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales
Earnings. American Express, Schlumberger