Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew June 13 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Let`s get ready to rumble: Data and significant events loom ahead
Risk sentiment is strong into the key week of the month: Tesla rose 2.2% and has now climbed for 12 straight trading sessions, all three US Indexes and most indexes rose – the GER40 is nearing all-time highs again.
The USD Index in meandering 103.50 while US Yields are fairly calm the Italian ones dropped on news that Silvio Berlusconi deceased.
EURUSD is trading at 1.0784, GBPUSD 1.2530 and USDJPY 139.50. Gold and Silver are at 1959 and 24.12.
Key Headlines:
- China's central bank lowered lending rates for the first time in 10 months
- Donald Trump is facing criminal charges in Florida today
- Credit Suisse stocks and CFD have been converted to UBS
- Toyota will start selling new solid state batteries from 2026, sending the stock almost 5% higher
- 50 cryptocurrencies worth over $100 billion in total are now viewed by the SEC to be securities. These can only be traded by brokers, and only on regulated exchanges
- Saxo has emerged victorious at the prestigious e-FX Awards hosted by FX Markets. This year's triumph marks our fourth consecutive win being recognised with the highly coveted award ‘Best Retail FX Platform
Today we are expecting the UK Unemployment rate, the German HICP and ZEW and most importantly the US CPI ahead of the FOMC Rate decision and the ECB tomorrow and Thursday. If there are any surprises in the data or the rate decisions, I would expect a good deal of volatility. Consider options to hedge risk events as Vol seems chap.
Data, Earnings and Expiries:
Tuesday June 13
UK Unemployment rate
Germany HICP, ZEW
US CPI,
Earnings: Ashtead Group
Wednesday June 14
UK GDP
US PPI Machine Manuf'ing
Rate decision
Earnings: Lennar
Thursday June 15
Japan Trade
China Retail Sales
ECB Refinancing Rate
US Retail Sales MM
Earnings: Adobe, Kroger, Jabil, Halma
Friday June 16
Italy CPI
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
ADM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
BPM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
DXM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 09:00 GMT
E7M3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
ECM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
JYM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
M6EM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
MPM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
MSFM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
NEM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
NOM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
PJYM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
RFM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
RPM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
RYM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
SFM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs
AUDUSDADJUN23 will expire 13 Jun 2023 15:00 GMT
EURCHFRFJUN23 will expire 13 Jun 2023 15:00 GMT
EURGBPRPJUN23 will expire 13 Jun 2023 15:00 GMT
EURJPYRYJUN23 will expire 13 Jun 2023 15:00 GMT
EURUSDECJUN23 will expire 13 Jun 2023 15:00 GMT
GBPUSDBPJUN23 will expire 13 Jun 2023 15:00 GMT
DEN25JUN23 will expire 14 Jun 2023 14:55 GMT
USDINDEXJUN23 will expire 14 Jun 2023 15:00 GMT
AUS200JUN23 will expire 15 Jun 2023 12:00 GMT
ZA40JUN23 will expire 15 Jun 2023 08:00 GMT
Futures can be rolled online via the Futures Spread Trade Ticket. Any open positions will be closed after the mentioned times.
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