Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew June 21 2022
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Summer Solstice - The Quiet before the storm?
Good Morning,
Yesterday was a fairly uneventful day with risk sentiment slightly improving. Asian Shares gained over night and European and US Futures hint at a friendly open, Asia gained app 2%, the US Futures around 1.5% and Europe are app 0.5% higher,
The USD Index is basically unchanged and EURUSD is trading at 1.0517, GBPUSD at 1.2250 and USDJPY at 135.09. The Yen is near the highs still despite record JGB purchases by the BOJ last week, this will be interesting.
Gold and Silver remain little changed at 1835 and 21.53, Oil recovers to 115.
This is not necessarily the end of the volatile markets it may well be the quiet before the storm. Bridgewater reported a 10 Bio Equity short position showing that there is still some pessimism around. e are seeing more and more reports on rather high pay demands – German IG Metall is demanding more than 8% in salary increase and in the UK app. 40k Rail workers are on strike today for better pay. This will likely cause secondary inflation so we are likely t see a hot summer in the labor market
Todays calendar contains little except the Canadian Retail sales and US Existing Home sales at 14:30 and 16:00 CET.
Yesterday a number of interesting Technical comments were published by Km:
GBP: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/ta-gbpfx-20062022
AUD https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/ta-aud-fx-20062022
EUR https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/ta-eur-20062022
Remain cautions and flexible.
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
PLN2 will expire 22th June at 15:00 GMT
CCN2, CTN2 will expire 23th June at 15:00 GMT
RCN2 will expire 24th June at 15:00 GMT
NGN2 will expire 27th June at 15:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs:
PLATINUMJUL22 will expire on 21st of June at 15:00 GMT
COCOAANYJUL22 and COTTONJUL22 will expire 22th of June at 15:00 GMT
NATGASUSJUL22 will expire on 24th of June at 15:00 GMT
Futures can be rolled online via the Futures Spread Trade Ticket. Any open positions will be closed after the mentioned times.
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