Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Morning Brew June 21 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Looking for Impulses - Will Norinchukin tip the scale?
Good morning
Looking for clues
Markets were mixed yesterday, and it is a bit tricky to ascertain the key drivers.
The Swiss national Bank cut rates as expected, and the Bank of England left theirs in place. Initial Jobless claims in the US were quite high but in line with expectations. Housing Starts were lower than expected by 100k units and the Philly Fed Business index came at 1.3 vs 5 expected.
Nvidia fell 3.5% and pulled the tech sector a bit lower, the Nasdaq ended down 0.79% the Dow up 0.77% and S&P down 0.25%.
The US Tech 100 fell to below 20k again and is trading at 19800, the US500 failed to hold the 5500 and is at 5478.
US 10 year yields in the US are a little higher at 4.25 and the USDIndex is at 105.55EURUSD is trading at 1.0710, GBPUSD 1.2660 and USDJPY 158.90. Japanese government spokesmen are again warning speculators but quite honestly it is getting old and no one buys in. They need to act not talk to maintain credibility.
The news of the day may well be Japan's Norinchukin Bank, that announced it plans to sell around ¥10 trillion (USD 63 billion) of low yielding US and European government bonds . This trade may give the JPY a boost when it happens.
The CHF gave up some ground yesterday on the rate cut., EURCHF is 0.9556 and USDCHF 0.8916.
Gold and Silver rose significantly yesterday and are right now giving up some ground to trade at 2360 and 30.40
Today, the highlights will be international PMI throughout the day, most important are France at 9:15, Germany 9:30, EU 10:00 UK 10:30, US 15:45.
Trade safely!
Friday
- Data International PMI UK Retail Sales.
Expiries (in UTC)
CCN4 will expire on 21 Jun 2024 at 15:00
CTN4 will expire on 21 Jun 2024 at 15:00
OJN4 will expire on 21 Jun 2024 at 12:00
RCN4 will expire on 24 Jun 2024 at 09:00
Expiring CFDs
USNAS100JUN24 will expire on 21 Jun 2024 at 08:00
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