Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Tesla saved the day - Precious Metals weak
Good morning
Nvidia gained 7% yesterday and raised hopes the 3-day slump was a bump in the road and not the end of a trend. It closed at 126.
This pulled tech higher while the traditional blue chips were a bit lower, weighed by retail as Home Depot and Walmart fell.
At the end of the day, the Dow lost 0.75%, the S&P closed up 0.4%, and the Nasdaq up 1.25%. Volumes were low at 10 bio shares, 19% below the average. Carnival Cruise rose almost 9% on a strong outlook.
Volkswagen announced to invest €5 bio into e Mobility and a cooperation with Rivan
EURUSD is holding around 1.07, GBPUSD 1.2685 and USDJPY 159.80, the USD Index is at 105.67 and 10 year Yields at 4.26.Gold and Silver are under pressure at 2313 and 28.85, Bitcoin and Ethereum are at 61500 and 3382.
It seems like Friday will be the big day of the week, today there is basically nothing exciting on the agenda today unless there is a huge surprise in the US New Hme Sales at 16:00, making for either very calm or very nervous trading. tomorrow there is a decent amount of news but he key will be the fallout of the presidential debate and the PCE inflation data.
France remains in the spotlight,: "If a country can just ignore the rules and be helped by the central bank, you'll get a lot of doubts about the future value of the euro and the future cohesion of the euro," said Holger Schmieding, an economist at Berenberg to Reuters
Todays Data:
Wednesday
- Data AU CPI, US New Home Sales
Thursday
- Data EU Consumer Confidence, Turkey Rate decision, US Initial Jobless claims., GDP Final. Durable Goods Orders, US presidential Debate
Friday
- Data CH KOF indicator DE Unemployment rate US PCE, Barkin speaks, Ultimo
Expiries:
Physically Settled Futures
TTFMN4 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 19:30
Expiring CFDs
COPPERUSJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
CORNJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
GASOLINEUSJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
HEATINGOILJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
SILVERJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
SOYBEANOILJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
SOYBEANSJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
SUGARNYJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
WHEATJUL24 will expire on 26 Jun 2024 at 15:00
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.