Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Morning Brew June 28 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Traders complain about dull markets - Options interestingly cheap
Good Morning
The Dow and the S&P could rise on Friday by 0.7 and 0.33%, the Nasdaq fell slightly by 0.06%. Banks were allowed to pay dividends and buy back shares again. Over the weekend there was little movement as rising corona cases in certain areas puts traders on edge and offsets he positive impact that comes from the US Infrastructure package.
The USD Index trades at 91.83. Bitcoin at 34.400 and US 10 year rates at 1.5290. Gold and Silver rose to 1782 and 27.15 and EURUSD fell to 1.1905.
Volatilitiy has fallen to rather low levels, the 1 month Vol in EURUSD trades at 5.07, GBPUSD at 5.72 and Silver has fallen to 25%. Traders are complaining about the lack of movement (compared to the swings last year, it is a little quiet), buying options to be set up for the occasional sharp move like we had in the Fed decision may be worthwhile.
Oil has risen to the highest level since Q3 18 and 75.77 is the next resistance.
Ole Hansens COT Report: The accelerated metal selling that followed the #FOMC meeting drove down #gold longs by 33% to 76k lots, a seven week low and #silver by 36% to 29k while the #platinum (-81%) returned to neutral. #Copper long cut to one-year low. Speculators cut the bullish #grains bets to a 9 month low in week to June 22 with biggest reduction in #soybean (-25%) and bean oil (-22%) followed by #corn. Bucking the trend was #wheat which flipped back to a small net long.
- Didl is closing the books for the IPO a day early.
- UBS Ceo HAmers stated the recently reported job cuts were limited to certain areas and were headcount neutral as staff was being added in other places.
We are approaching a decent number of Futures and CFD expiries this week:
NGN1 will expire 28th June at 15:00 GMT.OJN1 will expire 29th June at 12:15 GMT.
HGN1, KEN1, PLN1, RRN1, SILN1, SIN1, ZCN1, ZLN1, ZMN1, ZSN1, ZWN1 will expire 29th June at 15:00 GMT.
HON1, RBN1, SBN1 will expire 30th June at 15:00
COPPERUSJUL21, CORNJUL21, GASOLINEUSJUL21, HEATINGOILJUL21, PLATINUMJUL21, SILVERJUL21, SOYBEANMEALJUL21, SOYBEANOILJUL21, SOYBEANSJUL21, SUGARNYJUL21, WHEATJUL21 will expire 28th June at 15:00 GMT.
OILUKAUG21 will expire 30th Jun at 15:00 GMT
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