Morning Brew March 20 2025

Good morning,

Tomorrow I will be in various appointments so there will be no Morning Brew

Watch for:

• Swiss and Swedish Rate decisions today at 9:30
• BoE Rate Decision 13:00
• US Initial Jobless Claims & Philly Fed 13:30, Home Sales 15:00
  Nike and Fedex earnings.
• Japan CPI (Friday 0:30 )
• Canada Retail Sales (Fr 13:30)
• EU Consumer Confidence (Fr 16:00)
• Quadruple Witching Friday (Friday)
• International PMIs Monday

The EU Summit will be in focus for the extent that the EU is willing to arm itself and support Ukraine as well

The Fed decision yesterday brought no surprise, the economic projections show worries of a stagflation on the horizon, the ugly combination of low growth and high inflation. This is a central banks nightmare as it cannot easily be addressed with monetary policy.

The Dot Plot shows that the Fed sees two more cuts this year, this brought 10 Year yields a little lower to 4.2 and boosted equities: the Dow gained 0.92%, the S&P 500 1.08% and the Nasdaq 1.41%,k all Mag 7 rose with Tesla most at nearly 5%, Boeing announced it was not expecting a hit by tariffs and gained almost 7%.

 The USD Index is at 103.58, EURUSD 1.0885, USDJPY 148.45 and Cable 1.2975, Gold remains at records highs near 3050 and Silver is taking a break at 33.70

The expectation for the Swiss National Bank remains a 25 basis point cut with a probability of 65%. Interest of many savings accounts will in tha t case fall to zero and we will see a surge to find yield elsewhere. The SMI has yielded 3.1% over the last 20 years.

Trade safely!!