Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew March 27 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Tariffs are key and prevent S&P and NAsdaq100 to tackle the 200 day lines
Good morning,
Tariff worries caused markets to slump yesterday, the S&P 500 fell 1.12%, Nasdaq -2.04% and the Dow -0.31% with volumes higher again.
Carmakers and tech ended lower with Tesla at -5.6%, GM -3 and Nvidia -5.7%.
Both Nadaq100 and the S&P 500 failed to break above the 200day moving average, which is a bad sign in the short term.
The measures compiled by Reuters:
A25% tariff - on top of previous duties - on imports of finished vehicles starting at 12:01 a.m. EDT (0401 GMT) on April 3. The base U.S. tariff rate for automotive imports is 2.5%.
The 25% tariffs also will apply to major automotive parts imports, identified in Trump's proclamation as "engines and engine parts, transmissions and powertrain parts, and electrical components." But parts duties may start up to a month later with a date to be set in the forthcoming Federal Register notice, but not later than May 3.
EU Carmakers are expected to open lower after Korean and Japanese lost.
With little on the Economic Agenda today, the Tariff discussion will be in the spotlight and expect massive swings as retaliation and clarification and possibly changes are being announced.
With the Trump administration under severe pressure for the security and data breaches that flabbergasts everyone, it is likely DJT will lash out further to change the topic.
Trade safely
Thursday, March 27
- US -GDP Final Reading (Q4 2024):** An update on economic growth
Friday, March 28**
- Germany Unemployment Rate: Labor market health in Europe’s largest economy[5].
- UK GDP
- France Inflation
- Japan Inflation Data: Critical for Bank of Japan policy outlook[7].
- US Core PCE Price Index (February) The Fed's preferred inflation gauge-
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