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CFDs and forex spot transactions are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor lose money when trading CFDs and/or forex spot with this provider. 0.52% of retail clients trading in leveraged products experience a negative account balance after a stop out occurred. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, forex spot transactions or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take high risk of losing your money.
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Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew May 29 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Calm except Nvidia and Silver

Good morning,

Except for Silver and Nvidia, markets seem to be almost hibernating. The US500 gained 0.02%,  the NASDAQ100 0.32%, the Dow gave up 0.055%, the GER40 and the Eurostoxx slightly more than 0.5% The NASDAQ Composite Index closed above 17.000 for the first time, while The Vix remains near the lows at app 12. 

Nvidia rose 7% and Apple is worth watching as iPhone sales in China surged 52% in April from a year earlier. Gamestop gained almost 25% yesterday, showing meme stocks are still a thing.

Silver broke the 32 level and seems to be on track to test the 32.50 – the break is needed for the next leg higher BUT the big question is if sentiment or data will support the move. Precious Metals have been very insensitive to the higher for longer narrative and the reaction to the PCE will be very interesting. Silver`s implied volatility is above 30% at 32.50.

Yields traded higher after hawkish comments and a disappointing bond auction yesterday, 10 years rose to 4.55%. EURUSD fell to 1.0845, GBPUSD is trading at 1.2750 and USDJPY 157.10. The Australian inflation came higher and AUDUSD felt o 0.6648. The USD Index rose to 104.68

The IMF changed it`s growth forecast for China to 5% for 2024 from previously 4.6% after the higher-than-expected GDP of 5.3% in Q1.

Redmond Wrote a good analysis of Japanese Equities: Understanding the Surge in the Japanese Equity Market and Corporate Share Buybacks

The market seems too complacent in my view, at one point we should break out of the current ranges and see a spike of volatility. This week would be the perfect timing with the EU and US Inflation data but that of course does not mean it will happen. Trade carefully!

Data:

Wednesday
- Data DE CPI, Beige Book
- Earnings: HP Inc

Thursday
- Data CH KoF Indicator, EU Consumer Confidence & Unemployment rate, US GDP& Initial Jobless Claims
- Earnings: Dell Technologies, Marvell, Costco
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, China PMI, France CPI, EU Inflation, US PCE and CA GDP

Expiries

Physically Settled Futures

CGZM4 will expire on 29 May 2024 at 15:00
FLGM4 will expire on 29 May 2024 at 15:00
TTFMM4 will expire on 29 May 2024 at 09:00
EMAM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 13:00
GCM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
MGCM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
TNM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
UBM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
Z3NM will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
ZBM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
ZFM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
ZNM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
ZTM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
HOM4 will expire on 31 May 2024 at 15:00
RBM4 will expire on 31 May 2024 at 15:00

 

Expiring CFDs


HK50MAY24 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 14:00
GOLDJUN24 will expire on 29 May 2024 at 15:00
CHINA50MAY24 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 14:00
30YUSTBONDJUN24 will expire on 29 May 2024 at 15:00
10YUSTNOTEJUN24 will expire on 29 May 2024 at 15:00

 

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

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  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

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