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Leveraged products (e.g., CFDs, Forex (FX) including crypto/fiat, options) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 61% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. 0.90% of retail clients trading in leveraged products experience a negative account balance after a stop-out occurred. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX, or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew November 11 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Good morning,

Digest these levels: Bitcoin is trading at above 80.000 more than 100% off the lows this year! The S&P 500 is trading at 6010 against a 52-week low of 4315 and above 6000 for the first time ever. The Dow is at 44060.

The USD Index is trading at above 105 again and 10 year yields are at 4.30. Gold and Silver remain volatile above key support levels. EURUSD is 1.0706, USDJPY 153.35 and GBPUSD 1.2904.

Moves continue to be driven by the Trump Trade more than anything else, here are three very good articles by our strats team to try to make sense of it:

Weekly Stock Spotlight: Trump Victory Propels Small-Cap Surge and US Outperformance

John`s FX Update:

Client Positioning in Equities This is a new very good format highlighting shifts in our clients positioning after the election.

 

China`s Consumer Price Index as well as the Producer Price Index came lower than expected. The CPI came at 0.3% vs 0.4% expected the PPI at -2.9% vs -2.5% expected and the stimulus measures disappointed, Chinese and HK Equities are trading under pressure

In the coming week we are expecting a decent amount of economic data, some interesting  earnings and fed speakers but the elephant in the room is the Trump win of the presidency and the Trump Trade.

Any  details on personnel, policy and implementation have the potential to move markets. Focus will be on Trade and tariffs, the stance towards Europe, Ukraine and China, immigration and economic policies will have an immediate impact but remember that Trump will not take office and we are now buying rumors, not yet facts.

Elon Musk sees to take a very active role in the forefront of the transfer of power, he was apparently present during Trumps initial call with Selinski and is also making endorsements for political appointments.

Besides US Politics, Germany is looking at Snap elections and a date should become clear this week.

Tonight at 18:00 CET I have the pleasure to discuss basic Option strategies with Fabio, if you are looking for a basic intro, please join us https://www.youtube.com/@FinanzFabio/streams

Trade Safely!
Events this week: 

Tuesday

- Data Germany Inflation, ZEW, UK Employment,
- Earnings: Shopify, Home Depot, On, Spotify
- Waller, Barkin, Kashkari speak

Earnings:
Wednesday
- Data US CPI,
- Earnings:  Cisco,
- Logan, Musalem, Schmid, speak

Thursday
- Data Sweden CPI, EU GDP, US Initial Jobless claims, PPI
- Earnings: Disney, JD.com
- Barkin, Kugler, Powell speak

Friday
- Data JP GDP, UK GDP, US Retail Sales
- Earnings, Alibaba

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
    Read full article
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Read full article
  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
    Read full article
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
    Read full article
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Read full article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
    Read full article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
    Read full article
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
    Read full article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
    Read full article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
    Read full article

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