Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Consolidation day with traders looking for clues
Good Morning,
I will be travelling next week so the next update will follow on the 23rd
Markets seem busy digesting the inflation number and looking for a clear direction. Equities were fairly quiet overall with the large Indexes move 0.5% or less , Rivan and Disney made noteworthy moves with Rivan rising a further 22% and Disney falling 7.1% on falling subscriber numbers. 10 Year yields remain high and the USD Index continues to rise – currently 95.20. EURUSD falls to below 1.1450 , Cable falls below 1.34 and a new low for the year at 1.3370. The USD index and FX traders seem to focus on the fact that the first US Rate hike is now expected for July 2022 while Gold and Silver remain strong, despite a small decline over night and trade at 1858 and 25.20. PMs are driven by low real yields which take the inflation expectation into consideration as well rather than the pure rate expectation.
Tesla moved little yesterday and closed 0.4% lower.
Today the EU Industrial production at 11 and the University of Michigan at 16:00 CET are of interest.
Earnings: Pingduoduo, Deuschte Telekom, Cie Financiere Richemont, Tokyo Electron, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Astrea Zeneca and Hapag Lloyd