Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Morning BrewNovember 4 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
We are heading into an amazing week with the US Election, the China's National People's Congress and Rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia , Swedens Riksbank and Norges Bank.
US Yields rise while the USD Lose ground in a somewhat counterintive move, but seems to be driven by the chances of a red sweep declining from nearly 50% a week ago to 36% now.
US 10 Year Yields rose to the highest level since early July at 4.36 while the USD Index fell to 103.77. EURUSD gained half a percent to 1.0890, GBPUSD is 1.2990, USDJPY 152.14. Gold and Siver recover to 2741 and 32.80.
News:
- Berkershire Hathaway cut its Apple exposure and holds record cash
- Massive Nonfarm Payroll miss at 12k vs expectation of a113k
- Intel jumps almost 8% but will be replaced by Nvidia after 25 Years as a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Index. Amazon rose 6.2%
- Friday, the Dow gained 0.7%, the &P500 0.4% and the Nasdaq 0.8%
- For the week, the S&P lost 1.4%, the Dow ended the week at -0.16% and the Nasdaq 1.5%
- OPEC+ has agreed to delay a planned December oil output increase by one month
- Swiss Minister of Finance Keller-Sutter wants to tighten regulation to avoid that tax payers have to bail out banks.
For the Central Banks, the Fed, the Bank of England and the Riksbank are seen to cut rates, the first to by 25 bps, the Swedes by 50.
Our Strats team have complied a a great collection of material on the US Election. Pls go to the Research tab in Saxo Trader and select inspiration.
It will be a massively important week for markets and should bring large swings. There are numerous ways to trade such an event risk depending on your overall view, risk management will be the key to success. Options can help moderate the risks or to simply speculate! Trade safely.
Monday
- Data International PMI, US Factory Orders, China's National People's Congress
Earnings: Mariott, Palantir
Tuesday
- Data AU Rate decision China &US & EU PMI, US Election, DE Industrial Orders,
Earnings: Supermicrocomputer, Panamerican Silver
Wednesday
- Data US Election Result,
- Earnings: Novo Nordisk, Teva, Toyota, ARM, AMC, Qualcom,
Thursday
- Data DE Industrial Production, Sweden, Norway, UK and US Rate Decisions
- Earnings: Moderna, Barrick Gold, Halliburton, Rivian, thetradedesk, Pinterest, Airbnb
Friday
- Data Canada labordata
- Earnings, Sony,
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