Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning BrewSeptember 1 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
Welcome to September
10 year rates rise from a low of 1.27 to 1.33 causing some US strength. The USD Index remains supported by the 50d Moving average and regains to 92.80, EURUSD falls to 1.1800 again, Gold to 1813 and Silver to 23.80. GBPUSD trades 1.3737 after hitting 1.38 yesterday. The Analyst forecast for EURUSD is 1.19 for the end of September, GBPUSD is 1.3950.
month in a row. Due to month end adjustments, volume was rather high yesterday, 9.8 Bio shares were traded in the US vs a 20 day average of 9 bio. Zoom reported lower video conference demand after more in person meetings can take place and shares trade more than 16% lower.thStocks are a little off the highs but remain strong, the S&P closed higher the 7
German Dax gained to 16k yesterday only to come under some pressure, currently indicated at 15880. A break above the 16k is needed for any further upside potential.
Chinas Caixin Purchasing Manager Index came a full point lower than expected and fell into contraction mode below 50 at 49.2. The Production Index came at 47.7 and new orders to 48. Markets seem to hope this will spark easier monetary policy by the PBOC and thus the reaction is somewhat muted.
EU Inflation came at 3% yesterday, a little higher than expected and the number is hitting the press today, that can be interesting – especially in Germany.
Watch for the EU and US PMI today at 10:00 CET and 15:45/16:00 as the most important data points.
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
1 Sep 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price mm | Aug | 0.1% |
1 Sep 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price yy | Aug | 8.6% |
1 Sep 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | GDP Quarterly YY | Q2 | 21.7% |
1 Sep 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | Manufacturing PMI | Aug | |
1 Sep 2021 | 09:45 | Italy | Markit/IHS Mfg PMI | Aug | 60.0 |
1 Sep 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Mfg PMI | Aug | 57.3 |
1 Sep 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit/BME Mfg PMI | Aug | 62.7 |
1 Sep 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Mfg Final PMI | Aug | 61.5 |
1 Sep 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI Final | Aug | 60.1 |
1 Sep 2021 | 11:00 | Turkey | ITO Istanbul Retail Prices | Aug | |
1 Sep 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | Unemployment Rate | Jul | 7.6% |
1 Sep 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | GDP QQ | Q2 | 0.2% |
1 Sep 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | GDP YY | Q2 | 12.8% |
1 Sep 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Mfg PMI | Aug | |
1 Sep 2021 | 15:30 | Canada | Markit Mfg PMI SA | Aug | |
1 Sep 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Mfg PMI Final | Aug | |
1 Sep 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Aug | 58.5 |
2 Sep 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Trade Balance G&S (A$) | Jul | 10,200M |
2 Sep 2021 | 09:00 | Austria | GDP Growth QQ Final | Q2 | |
2 Sep 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Industrial Output MM | Jul | -0.7% |
2 Sep 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Industrial Output YY | Jul | 1.8% |
2 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | United States | International Trade $ | Jul | -70.9B |
2 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 28 Aug, w/e | 345k |
2 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Trade Balance C$ | Jul | 1.70B |
2 Sep 2021 | 16:00 | United States | Factory Orders MM | Jul | 0.3% |
3 Sep 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Services PMI | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 03:45 | China (Mainland) | Caixin Services PMI | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | CPI MM | Aug | 0.60% |
3 Sep 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Serv PMI | Aug | 56.4 |
3 Sep 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Comp PMI | Aug | 55.9 |
3 Sep 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Services PMI | Aug | 61.5 |
3 Sep 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Comp Final PMI | Aug | 60.6 |
3 Sep 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Serv Final PMI | Aug | 59.7 |
3 Sep 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Comp Final PMI | Aug | 59.5 |
3 Sep 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Reserve Assets Total | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Non-Farm Payrolls | Aug | 728k |
3 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Unemployment Rate | Aug | 5.2% |
3 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Average Earnings YY | Aug | 4.0% |
3 Sep 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Services PMI | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Composite PMI | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Comp Final PMI | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Svcs PMI Final | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM N-Mfg PMI | Aug | 61.8 |
6 Sep 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Industrial Orders MM | Jul |
(Refinitiv)
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