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Leveraged products (e.g., CFDs, Forex (FX) including crypto/fiat, options) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 61% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. 0.90% of retail clients trading in leveraged products experience a negative account balance after a stop-out occurred. 
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Leveraged products (e.g., CFDs, Forex (FX) including crypto/fiat, options) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 61% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. 0.90% of retail clients trading in leveraged products experience a negative account balance after a stop-out occurred. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX, or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew JSeptember 18 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Central Bank Week

Good Morning

Heading into Central Bank week, US yields are on the rise. The Federal Reserve will announce rates on Wednesdays and traders are certain they will hold rates for now and await further data. There is currently less than 50% chance the Fed will hike rates this year. In December, 10 bais points are priced in and 3 cuts by December 2024.

Also on Wednesday, the Chinese PBOC will set 1 and 5 year rates.

Thursday we will see rate decisions from Switzerland, the Bank of England, Norway Sweden as well as Turkey. The UK and Switzerland and Turkey are expected to hike.

The USD Index is trading a little weaker, Indexes are friendly and Precious Metals gain over the weekend.

The USD Index has had 8 weeks of gains, which is very unusual and caused hedge funds to reduce their USD Shorts last week

China Evergrande`s shares took another hit today after management arrested several staff.

On Friday, Adobe shares dropped by 4.2% after earnings, while Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft each declined by 3%, 3%, and 2.5%, respectively but indications are friendly this morning with the US500 at 4456, GER40 15865 and the US tech 100 NAS at 15226.

Next to the rate decisions, a possible Biden Xi summit may be planned acc to the financial times, Uranium is trading at 12 year highs and oil is strong. The labor disputes in the US as well as Australia are continuing without any obvious solution.

Traders are not fully sure where to look for the next big driver as it seems the inflation / rate topic may be fading for now.

Trade safely

Tuesday
- Data: EU HICP, US Housing Starts, CA CPI

Wednesday
- Data Japan Trade, China Rates, UK CPI, US FOMC Rate decision & press conference

Thusday
- Data Australia GDP.  Swiss Sweden, Norway, UK and Turkey rate decision, US Initial Jobless claims, Philly Fed and Home sales,,

Friday
- Data Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales, International PMI

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

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  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

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  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

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    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
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  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

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    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
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  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

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    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
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  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

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    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
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