Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Investment and Options Strategist
Summary: Markets are reeling after President Trump’s tariff announcement and China’s swift counter-response, sending volatility soaring and futures tumbling. This article explains how to interpret the VIX, assess options positions during turbulence, and avoid panic-driven decisions.
It’s been a tumultuous week for global markets. Two days ago, U.S. President Trump announced a sweeping set of reciprocal tariffs, shaking investor confidence. The situation escalated further today when China retaliated with a 34% counter-tariff on U.S. imports, announced just before noon Brussels time—just hours ahead of the U.S. market open.
The reaction was swift:
Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.
In uncertain markets, the VIX serves as a real-time indicator of investor sentiment. A rising VIX reflects growing uncertainty, often triggered by unexpected events or policy moves. When the VIX remains high and shows no sign of returning to more typical levels, it reflects the market’s view that uncertainty will persist for the foreseeable future.
This doesn't predict direction or outcomes. Instead, it highlights that markets are bracing for wider price swings—regardless of whether they turn out to be positive or negative.
If you're holding options positions, the recent surge in volatility may be causing your account to flash red. It’s important to understand what’s happening under the surface:
The key takeaway? The numbers you're seeing on-screen may not fully reflect the real risk or value of your position.
Understanding when to take action is essential in markets like these.
Consider adjusting or closing if:
On the other hand, consider holding steady if:
In some cases, waiting for the storm to pass may result in pricing normalizing without needing to act.
Today’s environment is a reminder that markets are driven as much by psychology as fundamentals. The VIX doesn't tell you what will happen next, but it does offer insight into what the market fears might happen. And when fear is elevated, it’s easy to act on emotion rather than strategy.
Stay calm. Understand the mechanics behind your positions. Make choices based on your objectives—not short-term moves or flashing P&L swings.
That discipline can be your biggest advantage.