Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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A natural disaster bankrupts a large insurance company for the first time
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Summary: After a year of wild weather in 2024, a catastrophic storm hits the US in 2025, sinking a large insurer that has underestimated climate change risks.
Climate change is driving an intensification of the earth’s water cycle. As the atmosphere warms, it can hold more moisture, and rainfall intensity has been rising sharply in recent years. This past year has seen wild weather events around the world, from a deluge that created temporary lakes in some of the driest areas of the Sahara, to deadly flooding in Slovakia and Poland as rivers burst their banks and in Connecticut and New York after a “once in a thousand year” rainfall event. Climate scientists have charted that rainfall amounts that fall in heavier rains around the world are marching ever higher. This means the risk that what was formerly considered a 100-year or even 1000-year rain and flooding event could happen on the order of once a decade, or even more frequently.
In 2025, a catastrophic storm and rainfall event in the US catches the insurance industry unprepared, inflicting damage stretching into many multiples of the USD 40 billion in claims linked to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. One of the largest US insurers significantly underestimated the insurance risks from climate change, leading to underpriced policies in the affected region. With insufficient reserves to cover claims and inadequate reinsurance to mitigate the costs of this extreme event, panic spreads across the entire industry. A crisis unfolds, prompting government-level discussions on whether to bail out the failing company and the other walking wounded in the industry to prevent widespread risk contagion. The disaster forces a reset in natural disaster pricing, profoundly marking down real estate values in many housing markets. Consumer confidence takes a hit on the insecurity of the value of many homeowners’ largest asset, their house.
Potential market impact: Berkshire Hathaway shares rise as Buffett’s company has enough capital to weather the panic and the company gains market share.
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