Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Gold buyers return as the dollar changes direction
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Gold has found its footing after last week's selloff, supported by a weaker USD.
Gold trades back above $1300/oz as it continues to recover from the near-5% correction that took it close to, but not through, key support at the $1,275/oz level last week. The bounce that kicked off last Friday following the weak US jobs report is currently being supported by a weaker dollar as another failed attempt to break higher has attracted selling interest. Additional support has come from renewed strength in US bonds in response to softer US CPI and strong demand at yesterday’s 10-year T-Note auction when the yield touched 2.6%, the lowest since early January.
Having broken back above $1,300/oz, technical traders will now be focusing on the yellow metal's ability to challenge resistance at $1,314/oz and more importantly $1,322/oz. A break above the latter could signal the end of the correction from a technical perspective and mark the beginning of a fresh attempt to challenge the $1,350/oz level.
Having broken back above $1,300/oz, technical traders will now be focusing on the yellow metal's ability to challenge resistance at $1,314/oz and more importantly $1,322/oz. A break above the latter could signal the end of the correction from a technical perspective and mark the beginning of a fresh attempt to challenge the $1,350/oz level.
Gold’s recent trading behaviour has seen funds unsuccessfully chase the market. After buying 44k lots in the run-up to the failed attempt at $1,350/oz, they then dumped 56k lots last week after gold came close to challenging key support at $1,275/oz. Last week, however, the biggest jump in short holdings since July highlighted the risk of a renewed upside squeeze. Investors in exchange traded funds backed by bullion have also returned to the market. Total holdings have started to recover following an almost continuous drop since January 31.
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