Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
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Key Stories from the past week: Déjà vu Monday
Saxo
For the second Monday in a row, markets came out of the weekend with a cautious tone. This time as the reality of Trump’s trade-war was finally appreciated. Oil wiped out 2025 gains as tariffs and demand weighed on price. Once again it is Nvidia with the highest number of Saxo clients trading the name as it regained a lot of last week’s stock price drop. Novo Nordisk, Microsoft, Tesla and Palantir also high in the client activity rankings. The yen gained, boosted by consumption and wage data. While the BoE produced a dovish cut to the UK’s policy rate. More below on this week’s key stories.
Trade wars
Vix jumped, equity benchmarks sold off and the greenback rallied as Trump’s trade war became reality. Markets were relieved as US tariffs on Canada and Mexico were postponed, but the risk of international trade wars remain, Europe may be next.
Trump's Tariff Threats: How Bad Could This Get for Europe
Palantir’s AI Boom
Palantir (PLTR:xnas) is up 35% on the week (as of Thurs close) after reporting strong Q4 earnings and increased revenue forecast. AI is at the heart of the firm’s momentum pushing the company’s valuation near 200x forward earnings.
Palantir: Strong Earnings, Soaring Stock, and What Comes Next
XAU - All the way up
New all-time highs for gold this week on concerns the trade wars will impede growth, raise debt levels, and increase inflation, all while boosting demand for safe haven assets.
Broad Strength Drives Commodities Sector to 26-month High
Cloud takes backseat
A pre-earnings snipe tested investor confidence as China’s regulators probed Alphabet for suspected antitrust violations. This was followed by disappointing results due to slowing cloud growth and surging AI spending.
Alphabet's Cloud Stumbles and AI Ambitions
Big tech earnings might be done but there are still plenty of important results to come next week. To name a few; McDonalds on Monday, Coca-Cola and Shopify on Tuesday, Cisco Systems on Wednesday, and Unilever on Thursday. In economic data we have China PPI & CPI (Sun), US CPI (Wed), UK GDP (Thurs), EU GDP (Fri). There are also various central banks speakers including Powell’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the Senate.
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