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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
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Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Gold and Silver testing key resistance after strong rebound. Gold/Silver ratio unwinding rising wedge pattern
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Gold Spot XAUUSD bounced from key support at 1,6800 and is now testing key resistance at 1,780. 1,780 was the key support for months but was broken by heavy selling in early June that took XAUUSD to test support at 1,680.
XAUUSD is also testing medium-term falling trend line. A close above both is likely to extend the bounce to a round 1,825-1,850.
However, on daily RSI is still below 60 threshold and if failing to close above i.e. RSI is rejected at 60 the down trend will resume for another test of 1,680 key support. Today and next couple of days will be decisive.
XAGUSD has bounced strongly from support at 18.35 and is now testing resistance at 20.45. At the time of writing the daily RSI is above 60 and if it closes the day above the bounce is likely to be extended to 21.48 i.e. the 0.764 retracement of the June sell-off. Some resistance at the 0.618 retracement at 20.84.
IF XAGUSD drops back below 19.84 bear trend is likely to resume.
XAUXAG Gold/Silver ratio has taken out support at 89.57 AND the lower rising trend line is what seems like a rising wedge pattern. Pausing at 0.618 retracement where a bounce from is not unlikely. A bounce that could take XAUXAG to test the trendline from beneath.
If that scenario plays out and XAUXAG gets rejected at the trendline the sell-off is to resume, but if XAUXAG closes above the trendline the rising wedge like pattern is busted and XAUXAG sell-off was merely just a correction in a broader uptrend.
If XAUXAG drops below 86.35 next support is the 0.764 retracement at around 85. Key strong support at 82.26
However, the longer-term uptrend will still be in plays if XAUXAG stays above 82.25. Weekly RSI is still showing positive sentiment with no divergence indicating future higher levels.
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