Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Gold and Silver rejected at Fibonacci levels after bullish break out. Platinum in bearish mood but Palladium looks to building upside momentum. Copper range bound
Gold XAUUSD was rejected a few cents below the 2,000 mark and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. Uptrend is still intact however, RSI showing positive sentiment and no divergence indicating Gold is likely to resume uptrend after what is likely to just be a correction. Uptrend will be intact if we do not see a daily close below 1,913.
The longer term scenario on Gold expressed in our Quarterly Outlook is still intact . Read it here: https://www.home.saxo/insights Extract: Gold has formed what looks like a cup and handle pattern: B is the bottom of the cup and C is the handle.
The cup and handle pattern is confirmed if gold performs a daily close above peak A at $2,078. If this scenario plays out, we can then calculate possible targets. As a minimum gold should reach 1.618 projection of the handle height—in other words, a price target of around $2,328. Based on the full cup the price could potentially reach 1,618 projection of the distance between A and C—around $2,578. If demand deteriorates and gold breaks below $1,673 (the bottom of the handle), this cup and handle scenario is busted and a downtrend will unfold towards $1,500-1,350.
Silver XAGUSD rejected at the 0.764 retracement. Further down side to touch the 55 SMA i.e. down to around 24.65 is quite possible before XAGUSD is likely to resume uptrend. RSI still positive sentiment and no divergence support the bullish Silver scenario
XAUXAG Gold/Silver ratio keeps trading in months long symmetrical triangle pattern. Wait for breakout
Platinum XPTUSD spot struggling to gain upside momentum. RSI indicator is showing negative sentiment and no divergence indicating lows around 950 could be tested. For Platinum to reverse the bear mood a daily close above 1,026 is needed.
Check out Trade Signals module on SaxoTrader platforms for short term trade ideas on Metals spot
Palladium seems to slowly building upside momentum. Confirmation if Palladium breaks above 2,534. If the scenario plays out RSI is likely to break above 60 threshold thus indicating positive sentiment.
Resistance at 2,639
Copper seems to be range bound between 462 and 485. A break out of this range is needed for direction. RSI is still showing bullish sentiment indication break out is likely to be to the upside.
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Commodity Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Commodity Strategy
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)