Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Technical Update - Bitcoin and Ethereum struggling to maintain upside momentum
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Bitcoin spiked above key resistance around 25K only to close back below. Will it retrace from here?
Ethereum rejected at 1,790 resistance. Will it have another go at it?
Bitcoin BTCUSD spiked above resistance at around 25,054 only to close the day below. Trying again today and might be successful. RSI is back above the 60 threshold i.e., in positive sentiment and BTCUSD is above the cloud (Green shaded area) . A move to 28K is in the cards.
However, if BTC cannot manage to close above 25K and retraces back in to the cloud BTC could be range bound between 19,750 and 25K for quite some time
On the weekly time period the struggle BTC has with the 25K resistance is clear. 55 weekly Moving Average coming down and the 200 MA currently around 25,345 add to the resistance around 25K.
RSI has not yet broken back above the 60 threshold thus still in negative sentiment. A weekly close above 60 is needed for BTC to gain traction to 28K and 32K area.
Ethereum ETHUSD rebounded after finding support at the 200 daily Moving Average rallying higher only to be rejected at the resistance at around 1,790.
Hovering around 1,700 ETH seems indecisive but is above the cloud and RSI is above 60 threshold i.e., in bullish sentiment. ETH could have another go at the 1,790 resistance. If ETH does break above 1,790 there is room up to around 2K.
If ETH retraces back in to the cloud (green shaded area) downside pressure could resume. 200 daily Moving Average currently around 1,424 will offer support.
On the Weekly time period ETH is still below the 55 weekly Moving average and below cloud, and RSI is still showing negative sentiment. ETH needs to close the week above 1,790 to establish an uptrend for a move to 2K level.
A break above 2,032 will pave the way for medium-term strong uptrend towards 3K with some resistance at the 0.618 retracement at 2,550.
Support at around 1,350 if taken out ETH is likely to drop back to 1,100-900.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)