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Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Hang Seng breaking bearish out of rising channel. Down trend likely to resume
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Hang Seng has broken bearish out of its rising channel. The Index is likely to test the support at 20,697. A close below is likely to trigger a sell-off down to around 19,950-19,890.
RSI has broken its rising trend line and is close to test the 40 threshold. If RSI closes below 40 sentiment is negative supporting the bearish scenario that will play out if Hang Seng closes below 20,697
To reverse the bearish picture Hang Seng must close above 21,962 for a re-test of medium term (black) falling trend line.
The HK50 cfd/Hang Seng future has found support at the 0.50 retracement level at 20,778 after breaking short-term rising trend line.
If HK50 closes below 20,587 it is in a confirmed downtrend, likely supported by RSI closing below 40. RSI is still positive, however bouncing off the 40 threshold.
If HK50 breaks below 20,587 next support at around 19,864. To reverse the likely bearish outlook, a close above 22,030 is needed.
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