Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Technical Update - S&P 500 stopped at key resistance, will it break it? Nasdaq 100 established short-term uptrend but it might be too fragile
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
S&P500/US500 testing strong resistance for further upside. It can be too strong to break and next couple of days will be key. Even if broken upside seems limited.
Nasdaq 100/USNAS100 lagging S&P500 but has established uptrend. An uptrend that seems fragile and can easily falter and slide back resuming bear trend
S&P 500 closed the gap Friday with a strong move higher. peeped just above the key resistance at around 3,807 only to close below. 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the September sell-off is at 3,810. A close above needed to establish an uptrend.
RSI 14 is still below 60 threshold however, meaning it is still showing negative sentiment. If RSI is rejected at 60 the bear trend is likely to resume. If closing above, it is an indication of further upside momentum.
If S&P closes above 3,807, we could see a rally of another 100 points to strong resistance at 3,900.
55 and 100 SMA’s are coming down around that level i.e., the underlying sentiment is declining and will likely put a dampener on the possible uptrend. If that scenario plays out (that the Index closes above 3,807 and RSI above 60) S&P could run out of steam at the 0.618 retracement at around 3,879.
If S&P 500 slides back below 3,647 the bear trend will resume for lower lows. Look out ofr RSI breaking below its rising trendline
This morning the US500 cfd/S&P500 future is having another go at the 3,807 resistance. If US500 breaks above next resistance is at around 3,900.
A break below 3,630 is likely to lead to bear trend to resume. First indication of this scenario to play out could be RSI breaking below its rising trend line
Nasdaq 100 has broken out of its falling channel but closed below the upper resistance of the Gap. A close above 11,478 is needed for further upside. However, there are plenty overhead resistance if Nasdaq manages to close above 11,478.
11,660 would be key for confirmation of a new uptrend. An uptrend that could be cut short around 12K.
RSI is still showing negative sentiment and still has some way to for before reaching the positive sentiment threshold.
If Nasdaq 100 slides back below 10,962 bear trend resumes for lower lows.
USNAS100 cfd/Nasdaq future seems to establish a very short-term uptrend but key resistance will be at around 11,668. A close above will confirm this. IF the USNAS100 slides basck below 10,891 the bear trend is set to resume.
Note: Author is holding a short position in USNAS100
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)