FX Update: A hopeful bounce in sentiment or red herring?

Please have a listen to today’s Saxo Market Call podcast – especially useful today for the discussion onoil market dynamics and the difficulty of engineering a sufficiently large production cut to get ahead of the risk for further price declines in the near term.

Covid19 headlines the driver? – many are attributing the strong surge in risk sentiment overnight to the prospects for an imminent peak in Covid19 impact that may prove lower in the US case than many feared recently. US President Trump and Vice President Pence both touting a stabilization narrative overnight. The numbers are already turning in many places in Europe, with the UK and Sweden as the two main spots of concern . Still, no one can tell us how quickly activity can resume as even places like Denmark that will try to roll out an “opening up” programme starting next week will start with baby steps and the damage done in terms of labor market losses will weigh on behavior as well as policy caution on resuming normal activities, large events, etc.

Tomorrow an important test for EUR – the next key test for fiscal solidarity across the EU is the Eurogroup meeting (of EU finance ministers) tomorrow. Yes, the ECB is keeping things orderly by having already abandoned former rules limiting its ability to buy peripheral debt more aggressively and keeping spreads down (just weeks after Lagarde said it wasn’t her job!)Things can go very wrong for all thing euro if we see anything resembling the prior meeting - i.e., a total failure to come to an agreement on any level. The stakes are high for Europe here.

EM strains worsened – some of the major EM currencies suffered weak sessions on Friday and were weaker still overnight before finally bouncing in line with the broader surge in risk sentiment overnight. We continue to keep an eye on EM after somewhat disorderly declines last week and the risk of a credit even setting off wider contagion. Emerging market policymakers do not have the same policy options as elsewhere as many have too much aggregate debt denominated in foreign currency – even if large portions of that debt is in the hands of corporations rather than the sovereign itself. Focus on South Africa and Turkey as the weakest links, but Mexico and Brazil also deserve attention.

Chart: EURJPY
We will continue to watch the cycle lows in EURJPY and EURUSD in coming sessions over the Eurogroup meeting tomorrow and the general sense of whether the EU is pulling together or spinning apart politically. Already, the rally overnight has been significantly backtracked as of this writing – watching the 116.00-25 area closely from here.