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Technical Update - Bullish break out in AUDUSD and AUDJPY hit by resistance. EURAUD continue downtrend.
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
After AUDUSD broke bullish out of its falling wedge formation it has been rejected at around 0.680 which is both the 0.764 retracement of the peak to trough of the wedge, 0.50 retracement of the down trend since June peak AND the 55 SMA. If Monday ends down it could signal a reversal of the bullish break out/rebound.
If Monday ends on the positive note the resistance at around 0.680 could be taken out. If that scenario plays out AUDUSD is likely to extend its rebound to key resistance at around 0.7069.
AUDJPY got rejected at the 0.764 retracement of the falling wedge breakout at around 95.60, currently trading at the 0.382 retracement of the uptrend after wedge break out. A correction down to the 0.618 retracement at 93.07 before uptrend resumes is not unlikely.
IF AUDJPY breaks above 95.76 June highs at 96.88 is likely to be tested and taken out.
EURAUD closed Thursday below support at 1.4765. Last week ended with a lot of volatility and could trade most of the last week of July in a fairly wide range between 1.46 and 1.49. A close below 1.46 and selling pressure in EURAUD is likely to be intensified and push the pair down to around 1.4320.
RSI is below 40 supporting the bearish view.
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