Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - EUR taking a beating from its pairs. EURAUD, EURCAD, EURCHF, EURGBP & EURJPY
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
EURAUD is likely to test support at 1.4765 shortly. A likely move below will make EURAUD to test key support at 1.46. A move above 1.4980 will put the down trend on pause but likely not reverse it.
EURCAD has reached support at around 1.3025. Expect a rebound from here. Possibly up to the 0.236 retracement at 1.3728. Monthly chart.
EURCHF still trading in a steep falling trend. No support until around 0.9694. However, as can be seen on the weekly chart EURCHF seems to be unwinding a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern with potential target around 0.90. To demolish that picture EURCHF needs to move above 1.0515.
Last week EURGBP broke bearish out of its wide rising channel, pausing at 100 and 200 SMAs. A daily close below 200 daily SMA will be a strong indication of EURGBP to drop further. If that scenario plays out next support at around 0.8375, which would then be likely to be taken out.
Weekly chart shows how EURGBP was rejected at 0.8720 and has resumed bear trend. RSI was rejected at 60 i.e. in negative sentiment. If EURGBP drops below support the pair is likely to find itself trading around its April lows possibly March lows between 0.8250 and 0.8200.
EURJPY has broken its rising trend line and below support at around 137.83 thereby confirming the Double Top pattern. EURJPY is set for further sell off down to around 133. If EURJPY trades above 139.20 the down trend will be put on hold and we could see EURJPY testing the rising trend line for beneath.
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