Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
EURNOK has broken above resistance at around 11.63 thus resuming uptrend, and is closing in on the 0.786 retracement and resistance at around 11.86.
Both daily and weekly RSI have broken back above 60 threshold confirming the bullish move. A move that can take EURNOK to May 2023 peak just above 12. However, if EURNOK is closing above the 11.85 resistance a move above 12 to at least the 1.382 projection at around 12.44 is in the cards, possibly also spiking up to the 1.618 projection at around 12.67
For EURNOK to reverse the bullish short term trend a close 11.35 is needed. A close below 11.19 is needed to reverse the medium term bullish trend
EURSEK bounced off from its short-term rising trendline and seems set to resume it bullish trend
A short term move to the 0.618 retracement seems like. A close above is likely to push the daily RSI to close back above 60 threshold i.e., back in positive sentiment supporting further upside potential
Medium term EURSEK did break below its lower rising trendline but is currently trading back above. If EURSEK can close the week above the trendline EURSEK could be set for higher levels.
If weekly RSI is also closing back above the 60 threshold it will further confirm the bullish trend ahs resumed.
A trend that could push EURSEK above 12. Possibly to the 1.382 projection at around 12.20, but a bullish move to the 1.618 projection at 12.35 would be in the cards.
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