Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: EURUSD likely to test key support at 1.0730
USDJPY testing key resistance, potential to +150
USDCHF breaking bullish above falling trendline, potential to 0.8820
AUDUSD below key support could drop to 0.64-0.63
GBPUSD testing support trying to break range bound trading, could sell-off to 1.25
EURUSD couldn’t even test the 55 DMA before sellers regained control. EURUSD now back below 200 and 100 DMA’s seems set for a test of the key strong support at around 1.0730.
Negative RSI sentiment is supporting that scenario.
A close below 1.0730 could very well send EURUSD lower towards the 0.786 retracement at around 1.06
A close above 1.09 is needed to demolish the bearish picture
USDCHF has broken and closed above its upper falling trendline currently testing the 0.786 retracement at 0.8690.
RSI is in positive sentiment supporting the current bullish move that is likely to take USDCHF to the strong resistance at around 0.8820.
Minor resistance at 0.8728.
A close below 0.8550 will demolish the bullish picture and likely send USDCHF back down to 0.8455
AUDUSD closed Friday below key strong support at around 0.6520.
That support is also the Neckline in the Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern with down side potential to the Consolidation area 0.64-0.63.
Negative sentiment on RSI is supporting the bearish scenario
A close above 0.6625 will demolish the SHS top and reversal scenario
GBPUSD is at the time of writing below support at around 1.2610. If closing below and if RSI is closing below 40 threshold GBPUSD is likely to initiate a sell-off down to around 1.25
If failing to close below 1.2610 GBPUSD is likely to stay range bound between 1.2610 and 1.2775
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)