Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD and GBPUSD. Key support and resistance levels to observe
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: EURUSD likely to test key support at 1.0730
USDJPY testing key resistance, potential to +150
USDCHF breaking bullish above falling trendline, potential to 0.8820
AUDUSD below key support could drop to 0.64-0.63
GBPUSD testing support trying to break range bound trading, could sell-off to 1.25
EURUSD couldn’t even test the 55 DMA before sellers regained control. EURUSD now back below 200 and 100 DMA’s seems set for a test of the key strong support at around 1.0730.
Negative RSI sentiment is supporting that scenario.
A close below 1.0730 could very well send EURUSD lower towards the 0.786 retracement at around 1.06
A close above 1.09 is needed to demolish the bearish picture
USDJPY is testing key resistance at around 148.80. A close above is likely leading to levels in the 150’s. Resistance at around 149.75 and the 2022 peak just a few cents below 152.
RSI is in positive sentiment indicating USDJPY will break higher.
A close below 145.85 is likely to send USDJPY to 144.52 but could drop to 143.52.
The 55 DMA add to the support likely limiting the downside potential.
RSI is in positive sentiment indicating USDJPY will break higher.
A close below 145.85 is likely to send USDJPY to 144.52 but could drop to 143.52.
The 55 DMA add to the support likely limiting the downside potential.
USDCHF has broken and closed above its upper falling trendline currently testing the 0.786 retracement at 0.8690.
RSI is in positive sentiment supporting the current bullish move that is likely to take USDCHF to the strong resistance at around 0.8820.
Minor resistance at 0.8728.
A close below 0.8550 will demolish the bullish picture and likely send USDCHF back down to 0.8455
AUDUSD closed Friday below key strong support at around 0.6520.
That support is also the Neckline in the Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern with down side potential to the Consolidation area 0.64-0.63.
Negative sentiment on RSI is supporting the bearish scenario
A close above 0.6625 will demolish the SHS top and reversal scenario
GBPUSD is at the time of writing below support at around 1.2610. If closing below and if RSI is closing below 40 threshold GBPUSD is likely to initiate a sell-off down to around 1.25
If failing to close below 1.2610 GBPUSD is likely to stay range bound between 1.2610 and 1.2775
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