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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - JPY pairs resuming downtrends, could drop to previous lows
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
USDJPY was rejected on Friday at the 0.382 retracement of the July bear move at 149.42 and resistance at around 149.35.
The sell-off has continued this morning, resulting in RSI falling back below the 40 threshold, confirming the bearish outlook for USDJPY with downside potential to 143.35–142.85.
However, a move down to strong support at around the medium-term 140.25 should not be ruled out.
A daily close above 149.42 will reverse the bearish outlook for USDJPY
EURJPY was rejected at its 200 moving average and resistance at around 164.00. The downtrend is set to resume.
Currently testing minor support at around 160.55, a decisive break is likely, which could fuel a sell-off down to around 157.30, possibly dipping to the 0.786 retracement at 158.03.
RSI showing negative sentiment is back below 40, indicating lower EURJPY levels.
To demolish this bearish picture and reverse to a bullish move, a daily close above 164 is required AUDJPY's rebound ran out of steam just below resistance at around 99.21. A break below minor support at 96.75 is likely to fuel a sell-off down to around 96.65.
A break above 98.92 could push AUDJPY to strong resistance at around 99.91.
Negative sentiment on RSI is supporting the bearish scenario for AUDJPY.
An RSI close below the 40 threshold will further confirm that
A break above 98.92 could push AUDJPY to strong resistance at around 99.91.
Negative sentiment on RSI is supporting the bearish scenario for AUDJPY.
An RSI close below the 40 threshold will further confirm that
GBPJPY was rejected at the 200 daily moving average and resistance at around 191.90.
RSI is indicating that GBPJPY is likely to see lower levels, and a break below 187.85 could fuel another sell-off, quite possibly to 183.20.
A close above 192 will demolish the bearish picture and send GBPJPY towards 197.65.
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