Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Saxo’s Quarterly Outlook has been published, and can be accessed on the SaxoTraderGO here or web here
1215 – US Mar. ADP Employment Change
1400 – US Feb. Factory Orders
1430 – US Weekly DoE Crude Oil and Product Inventories
2000 (estimated) – US President Trump at Rose Garden press conference to announce tariffs
0145 – China Mar. Caixin Services PMI
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
Volatility
Volatility pulled back slightly but remains elevated. The VIX closed at 21.77 (-2.3%), with VIX futures at 21.00 (+0.58%). Short-term vol (VIX1D -8%) fell sharply after Monday’s spike but still reflects tariff event anxiety. SKEW -3.75% and VVIX -1.6% show a slight reduction in tail risk hedging. JPMorgan expects a ~1.6% move in SPX on today’s tariff news and sees opportunities in gold straddles and sector rotation via options. Despite the easing, a lack of VIX put buying suggests traders aren't ready to fade the risk spike yet.
Digital Assets
Bitcoin steadies as tariff risk tempers sentiment. BTC dipped -1.2% to $84,141, while ETH fell -2.5% to $1,856, and SOL -1.8%. XRP -2.6% also underperformed. Caution dominated ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement. Crypto stocks surged, with MSTR +6.2%, RIOT +5%, CLSK +12.5%, and IBIT +3.2% leading gains. Meanwhile, Circle filed for a $5B IPO, hoping to join Coinbase and MicroStrategy among listed crypto plays. Ethereum’s revenue from L2 “blob fees” hit 2025 lows, showing fragility in the network’s new fee structure. Binance delisted USDT pairs in the EU, complying with MiCA.
Fixed Income
Commodities
Yesterday’s rebound in risk sentiment favoured pro-cyclical currencies like the commodity dollars AUD, CAD and NZD and the Scandies NOK and SEK, as EURSEK and EURNOK pushed back to the cycle lows.
USDJPY remains stuck near 150.00 and EURUSD near 1.0800 ahead of Trump’s tariff announcements later today. Yesterday was the eighth consecutive day that EURUSD crisscrossed that 1.0800 level as investors remain indecisive on the impact of incoming European fiscal stimulus and US tariffs as well as global portfolio reallocations sparked by Trump administration policies.
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
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