Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.
Australia’s Reserve Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4.10% as most expected and continued to describe its current policy level as restrictive, with inflation moderating and the labor market still tight. The board was cautious about the outlook, still forecasting inflation to moderate, but bemoaning uncertainties abroad and the impact on confidence from US President Trump’s tariff policies. Australian short yields dropped two basis points and the AUD traded sideways on the decision as the market prices the RBA to cut twice more this year.
President Trump is pushing for significant tariffs, with threats against Iran and secondary tariffs on Russian oil. The White House Press Secretary stated the tariffs aim to end unfair trade practices, targeting countries treating the US unfairly. Trump is considering multiple tariff plans ahead of what he has billed as “Liberation Day” tomorrow. Fed officials recommended assessing tariff impacts before policy changes.
The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey of large manufacturers fell to 12 in early 2025, its lowest in a year, amid U.S. tariff concerns. Confidence dropped notably among textile, petroleum and coal, iron and steel, basic materials, and pulp and paper producers. Both the small and large non-manufacturing Tankan survey readings saw new modern highs for the cycle.
Germany's CPI came in at 2.2% YoY in March 2025, the lowest since November 2024, driven by slower services inflation at 3.4% and a larger decrease in energy costs at 2.8%. Food inflation rose to 2.9%, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, fell to 2.5%, the lowest since June 2021.
0900 – Eurozone Flash Mar. CPI
1230 – ECB President Lagarde to speak
1400 – US Feb. JOLTS Job Openings
1400 – US Mar. ISM Manufacturing
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
Volatility rises ahead of 'Liberation Day' tariffs.
The VIX rose to 22.28 (+2.9%) as markets braced for Trump’s tariff rollout. Despite Monday’s equity gains, futures suggest renewed caution: VIX9D +10.8%, and Vix futures this morning +2.2%. S&P 500 futures slipped this morning (-0.23%). The market is pricing in short-term event risk, with some expecting volatility to ease after the announcement. However, structural risks remain. The SKEW Index jumped +6.9%, and options dealers face growing imbalances amid expiring hedges. A massive JPMorgan collar roll and elevated VVIX readings point to continued turbulence through the week.
Crypto edges higher, but miners plunge amid macro risks.
Bitcoin rose to $83,272 (+0.88%), Ether to $1,848 (+1.42%), and XRP gained +1.28%. Solana led altcoins, climbing +1.7%. Despite the rebound, caution remains ahead of the April 2 tariffs. Mining stocks underperformed: MARA -7.8%, RIOT -3.9%, CLSK -6.5%, following MARA’s plans to raise $2B to boost BTC reserves. BlackRock CEO Fink warned that rising US debt could boost crypto appeal at the dollar’s expense. Meanwhile, Trump's sons launched a new BTC mining venture with Hut 8. DeFi protocol SIR.trading suffered a full $355K hack, adding to broader market wariness in decentralized finance.
Fixed Income
Little reaction to the RBA decision overnight to stand pat as expected. The AUD traded sideways and AUDNZD is poised in the pivotal 1.1000 area.
The JPY surge from Friday and into early trading Monday was partially reversed as USDJPY rose from a 148.70 low to as high as 150.27 late yesterday, Japan’s last trading day of its financial year. The rally moderated in the Asian session overnight as USDJPY traded 149.60 in early European hours.
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