Market Quick Take – 1 April 2025

• Equities: US +0.5% on tariff relief hopes; EU down sharply; tech weak
• Volatility: VIX 22.28; skew spikes; Trump’s “Liberation Day” looms
• Digital Assets: BTC +0.9%, ETH +1.4%; mining stocks hit; new Trump-linked BTC firm
• Currencies: JPY volatile on last day of Japan’s financial year yesterday – rebounded overnight versus the USD.
• Fixed Income: US long treasury yields drop back after intraday rise yesterday
• Commodities: Crude’s rising supply risk. Corn favored by US farmers. Gold leaves silver and platinum trailing
• Macro events: Eurozone Flash Mar. CPI, US ISM Manufacturing, US Feb. JOLTS Job Openings

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Macro data and headlines

Australia’s Reserve Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4.10% as most expected and continued to describe its current policy level as restrictive, with inflation moderating and the labor market still tight. The board was cautious about the outlook, still forecasting inflation to moderate, but bemoaning uncertainties abroad and the impact on confidence from US President Trump’s tariff policies. Australian short yields dropped two basis points and the AUD traded sideways on the decision as the market prices the RBA to cut twice more this year.

President Trump is pushing for significant tariffs, with threats against Iran and secondary tariffs on Russian oil. The White House Press Secretary stated the tariffs aim to end unfair trade practices, targeting countries treating the US unfairly. Trump is considering multiple tariff plans ahead of what he has billed as “Liberation Day” tomorrow. Fed officials recommended assessing tariff impacts before policy changes.

The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey of large manufacturers fell to 12 in early 2025, its lowest in a year, amid U.S. tariff concerns. Confidence dropped notably among textile, petroleum and coal, iron and steel, basic materials, and pulp and paper producers. Both the small and large non-manufacturing Tankan survey readings saw new modern highs for the cycle.

Germany's CPI came in at 2.2% YoY in March 2025, the lowest since November 2024, driven by slower services inflation at 3.4% and a larger decrease in energy costs at 2.8%. Food inflation rose to 2.9%, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, fell to 2.5%, the lowest since June 2021.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0900 – Eurozone Flash Mar. CPI
1230 – ECB President Lagarde to speak
1400 – US Feb. JOLTS Job Openings
1400 – US Mar. ISM Manufacturing

Earnings events

• Today: Walgreens Boots Alliance
• Thursday: Constellation Brands, Conagra Brands, Lamb Weston Holdings 

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

• US: Stocks rebound despite trade fears; Q1 ends with sharp tech losses.
  The S&P 500 rose 0.55%, and the Dow surged 1% on Monday, but the Nasdaq lagged (-0.14%) as tech stocks remained under pressure. Apple (+1.9%) was the lone bright spot among the "Mag-7", while Tesla (-1.7%) and Nvidia (-1.2%) declined. Despite Monday’s gains, Q1 ended as the worst quarter for the Nasdaq (-10.5%) and S&P 500 (-4.6%) since 2022. President Trump is set to unveil sweeping reciprocal tariffs tomorrow, spurring recession fears and Goldman Sachs to raise its 12-month US recession odds to 35%. Consumer staples led gains, while Moderna (-8.9%) and Novavax (-8.4%) weighed on health stocks.
• Europe: Tariffs pressure markets; CAC, DAX, FTSE drop sharply.
  European indices closed deeply in the red on Monday. France’s CAC 40 -1.58%, Germany’s DAX -1.33%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 -0.88% as trade tensions with the US escalated. Trump's plan to target all countries with new tariffs rattled investor confidence ahead of tomorrow’s announcement, dubbed "Liberation Day". Germany’s BASF (-3.3%) and Volkswagen (-3.5%) fell, while UK’s International Airlines Group plunged -6.7%. Inflation eased across the Eurozone, with Germany’s harmonized rate down to 2.3%, in line with expectations. Futures suggest a mild rebound this morning, but volatility remains high as investors await clarity on US trade measures.
• Asia: China data lifts sentiment, but trade worries linger.
  Asian equities rebounded Tuesday, tracking Wall Street’s recovery. Hang Seng +1.3%, supported by tech and pharma stocks after China’s Caixin PMI beat expectations (51.2). South Korea’s KOSPI +1.9% and Japan’s Nikkei +0.3% also rose. The RBA held rates at 4.10%, as expected. Despite upbeat China data, caution persists ahead of Trump’s tariff unveiling. Analysts see the April 2 announcement as a key risk event for the region, particularly exporters. The Hang Seng is up 17% for Q1, but momentum is waning as investors grow wary of a slowdown in Chinese stimulus and renewed geopolitical headwinds.

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Volatility

Volatility rises ahead of 'Liberation Day' tariffs.
The VIX rose to 22.28 (+2.9%) as markets braced for Trump’s tariff rollout. Despite Monday’s equity gains, futures suggest renewed caution: VIX9D +10.8%, and Vix futures this morning +2.2%. S&P 500 futures slipped this morning (-0.23%). The market is pricing in short-term event risk, with some expecting volatility to ease after the announcement. However, structural risks remain. The SKEW Index jumped +6.9%, and options dealers face growing imbalances amid expiring hedges. A massive JPMorgan collar roll and elevated VVIX readings point to continued turbulence through the week.

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Digital Assets

Crypto edges higher, but miners plunge amid macro risks.
Bitcoin rose to $83,272 (+0.88%), Ether to $1,848 (+1.42%), and XRP gained +1.28%. Solana led altcoins, climbing +1.7%. Despite the rebound, caution remains ahead of the April 2 tariffs. Mining stocks underperformed: MARA -7.8%, RIOT -3.9%, CLSK -6.5%, following MARA’s plans to raise $2B to boost BTC reserves. BlackRock CEO Fink warned that rising US debt could boost crypto appeal at the dollar’s expense. Meanwhile, Trump's sons launched a new BTC mining venture with Hut 8. DeFi protocol SIR.trading suffered a full $355K hack, adding to broader market wariness in decentralized finance.

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields backed up slightly yesterday after the steep drop in Friday’s session, but the 10-year treasury benchmark fell back to 4.19% into early trading today after trading as high as 4.26% yesterday.
• European yields traded lower Monday in sympathy with the drop in US treasury yields late Friday, but rebounded sharply later in the day, with the German 10-year Bund closing the day at 2.74% after trading as low as 2.66% earlier in the day

Commodities

• Crude prices jumped to a five-week high after earlier tariff-led weakness was reversed amid focus on supply, with the US threatening to slap secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil, and as tensions between the US and Iran continue to build. Brent has returned to $75, the centre of its long-held range.
• Gold recorded another record high overnight, reaching USD 3,148 as Trump’s looming tariff announcement underpins current strong momentum amid safe haven demand amid investors seeking diversification from a troubled stock market. Meanwhile, silver trades near a three-year low to gold, while platinum’s discount extends to a fresh record.
• Corn futures in Chicago slumped, only to rally after a US report showed farmers are expected to plant 5% more corn this spring at the expense of a 4% decline in soybeans and lower wheat acreage. The bounce is being supported by tightening stockpiles, enticing farmers to plant more corn.

Currencies

Little reaction to the RBA decision overnight to stand pat as expected. The AUD traded sideways and AUDNZD is poised in the pivotal 1.1000 area.

The JPY surge from Friday and into early trading Monday was partially reversed as USDJPY rose from a 148.70 low to as high as 150.27 late yesterday, Japan’s last trading day of its financial year. The rally moderated in the Asian session overnight as USDJPY traded 149.60 in early European hours.